Next Leg Up

Morgan Stanley’s bullish report on US LNG stocks last week gave the sector a lift. The biggest impact was felt by NextDecade (NEXT), which was up 17%, bringing its market cap to $2.8BN.
NEXT is still a small cap stock with no dividend, unusual for the midstream sector which is dominated by large-cap, investment grade companies that pay attractive dividends. But NEXT generates no cashflow. They’re building their Rio Grande LNG export terminal in Brownsville, TX.
Phase1, consisting of three trains or liquefaction units, is scheduled to become operational in 2H27. NEXT made their Final Investment Decision (FID) to proceed with Phase 1 in July 2023. Like many investors, we were disappointed that they conceded so much in the final round of negotiations with their partners. The 20.8% share of the economics NEXT wound up with seemed inadequate compensation for operating the project (see Environmentalists Opposed To Windpower last three paragraphs). Phase 1 is expected to generate $200-300MM in Distributable Cash Flow (DCF).
Perhaps as a result, the market hasn’t assigned much credit until recently to Phase 2. NEXT has been negotiating supply agreements with buyers to de-risk the project. They haven’t started construction, although Phase 2 will benefit from some of the infrastructure being built for Phase 1. Management has expressed confidence that they can achieve a bigger share of the expansion, but many have been skeptical.
Although Phase 2 hasn’t yet received FID, based on the 60% share the company has said it expects, Morgan Stanley estimates it will generate $700-$1BN in DCF. This would be a substantial improvement on Phase 1, although the company may yet wind up with a reduced share than they think. Since we invested in them in 2022 it has been anything but a smooth ride.
Our first mention of the company concerned the loss of a contract with France’s Engie because of concerns about the emissions associated with sourcing natural gas (methane) through NEXT (see Making LNG Cleaner). This raised worries that European buyers of LNG would insist on low or zero emissions in its production. NEXT sought to address the issue by planning to add carbon capture to their liquefaction facilities.
Engie returned a year later and signed an off-take agreement.
An adverse court ruling came last August, when the Sierra Club persuaded a judge to vacate a previously issued permit. It’s an example of why permitting reform is needed. A legal challenge should only disrupt a construction project that has the needed government permits in hand under exceptional circumstances. Otherwise, nothing will get done. In this case the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) had produced a supportive environmental study that the company relied upon to start construction.
Climate extremists including the Sierra Club are a destructive force pursuing nihilistic aims.
It has not been a smooth ride. There have been legal and regulatory setbacks, disappointing agreements with partners, and secondary offerings of equity at bargain basement prices. The stock has been 40% or more below its prior all-time high almost a third of the time.
The high it reached in August 2022 wasn’t even eclipsed in the aftermath of Trump’s election victory last November. When it did finally make a new high on March 25th, Liberation Day duly followed, bringing fears of reciprocal tariffs on US LNG exports. Within days it had lost 40% of its value.
In short, if volatility worries you this is not your investment.
NEXT needs around $1.2BN to finance their share of Phase 2. Fortunately, as Phase 1 progresses their financing options improve. They might issue some debt secured by the cashflows from Phase 1, or preferred securities. But even If the company makes the most dilutive choice of 100% equity and issues 120 million shares at $10 to raise $1.2BN, their share count would rise to just under 361 million.
Taking the midpoint of Phase 1 ($250MM) and Phase 2 ($850MM) sums to $1.1BN in DCF, around $3 per share.
If they FID Phase 2 in September and complete in four years, 2029 is approximately when they should approach that $3 per share in DCF.
NEXT is also developing plans for Phase 3 (Trains 6-10), which would further add to cashflow but is too far out to be reflected in today’s stock price.
Cheniere recently guided to $25 per share in DCF by 2030 and trades at a 9X multiple. They are best in class. NEXT rose over 20% during the two trading sessions following Morgan Stanley’s report. Nonetheless, at a 3-4X DCF multiple we think it still trades at a substantial discount.
We have two have funds that seek to profit from this environment:
Energy Mutual Fund Energy ETF