Apparently, the senior executives of Exxon and Chevron weren’t the only ones worried about inadequate oil inventories causing prices to spike (see Is Crude At A Tipping Point?). The White House heard the message, and ships are once again moving freely through the Strait of Hormuz. The world is suddenly awash with oil, which by […]
Last week we were in Tampa and Orlando meeting with investors. It’s always a pleasure to see clients that have been with us for several years, because they’ve invariably had a positive experience. On the drive from Tampa to Orlando on I-4 we passed the exit for DisneyWorld, although sadly didn’t have time on this […]
Crude oil has so far not reached the heights expected by industry insiders, including senior executives at Exxon Mobil and Chevron. The reasons include China’s decision to stop building its inventories, which reduced demand by 3-4 Million Barrels per Day (MMB/D). Their high penetration of EVs has supported a shifting from gasoline to coal as […]
It has struck us for some time that crude prices continue to reflect an overly optimistic view about when normal shipping will resume in the Strait of Hormuz. There is no acceptable military solution available to the US. The Iranian threat will stop when Iran so decides. Nonetheless, every positive social media utterance from President […]
Although drivers are feeling it at the pump, crude oil prices and therefore gasoline have so far not approached the most dire predictions. We’re enduring the worst supply disruption in history in terms of volume, with an estimated 500 million barrels having been drawn down from global stockpiles. Moreover, it’s become apparent that Iran’s asymmetric […]
Last week’s inflation print supported the value of midstream energy in a portfolio for preservation of purchasing power. We’ve noted this recently (see A Healthy Correction last paragraph). The most recent 3.8% CPI reading is driving longer term inflation expectations higher. Incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh has his work cut out for him satisfying both […]
1Q earnings have been coming in to heightened expectations following strong equity performance so far this year. Energy Transfer (ET), Targa Resources (TRGP) and Cheniere (CEI) all beat median Street EBITDA forecasts and raised full year guidance. AI-driven demand for natural gas to power data centers remains an important theme. ET has described the volume […]
We’ve felt for several weeks that financial markets were too optimistic in expecting a rapid re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz (see Calmer But Not Resolved and A Healthy Correction). Commercial shipping can only resume once the threat of Iranian attacks is resolved, an achievement we felt was beyond the ability of military action short […]
We spent last week traveling in Austria with friends. The impact of the Iran War felt closer – and not just because an Iranian missile could theoretically hit Vienna. This part of the world is highly energy dependent. They rely on imports for just over half of their primary energy, and about the same share […]
In Wealth, War and Wisdom (2008), Barton Biggs showed how financial markets often react with greater insight into the shifting fortunes of war than the general population. During World War II for example, German stocks peaked in 1941, well before the military disaster at Stalingrad. The US market rallied following the Battle of Midway in […]
