The Federal government is pursuing seemingly unlimited spending and is enabling this with unsustainably low interest rates. Investors need strategies to preserve purchasing power and stay ahead of the stealth erosion of their savings.

The Market’s Sanguine Inflation Outlook

Last week Fed chair Jay Powell pivoted away from “transitory”, and adopted a tone more in keeping with the market’s newly revised interest rate forecast. As a result, today’s yield curve is far away from the September FOMC projections, even though they’ll be revised at this month’s meeting. The most important question for bond investors […]

The Subtle Inflation Pressure From Housing

The Administration’s explanation for the less than transitory inflation relies on supply bottlenecks and a faster than expected rebound in energy demand. Both are wrong. The Wall Street Journal recently made an interesting argument that inflation will persist (see Another Reason Inflation May Be Here to Stay). Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on all goods (i.e. […]

The Emergence Of Omicron Covid

For the past few months the eurodollar futures market has steadily priced in the FOMC’s abandonment of “transitory” in its assessment of inflation. More often than not the Fed follows the market. The typical absence of public comments that precedes FOMC meetings was extended while Biden contemplated renewing Powell’s term. In short order, Powell’s reappointment […]

US States Choose Reliable Power

On Monday the Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that 27.3 Gigawatts (GW) of natural gas power plants will be added to the US fleet over the next three years, representing a 6% increase from current capacity. The US is blessed with abundant supplies of natural gas, sufficient to power the country for many decades. Many […]

Will The Fed Catch Up With The Curve?

It’s easy to criticize the Fed. They’ve maintained their uber-accommodative monetary policy for probably a year longer than needed. Once the vaccine breakthrough was announced last November, prudence dictated that they anticipate an economic rebound and begin normalizing rates. Instead their bond buying has had the effect of partially monetizing Federal debt issued to fund […]