The global energy crisis is turning out to be the catalyst driving the sector higher. Years of under-investment in new oil and gas output are finally colliding with relentless demand growth. Energy investors are enjoying growing free cash flow because of reduced capex. The credit for this shareholder-friendly behavior should be shared with climate extremists […]
A significant interest rate move has taken place in recent days that has received scant coverage from mainstream financial media. The market has priced in a more aggressive pace of Fed tightening over the next couple of years, while simultaneously moderating the outlook beyond that. This flattening of the yield curve has been reflected in […]
We spent last weekend in Boston with our daughter, who’s at school there and just turned 21. We visited the Mapparium, a glass spherical room that has the visitor standing inside the globe, with the world’s countries as in the 1930s (i.e. much of Africa was controlled by European powers and India had not yet […]
“The Fed’s an inflation creator, not an inflation fighter.” So said Paul Tudor Jones last week in an interview on CNBC. It’s doubtful that charge has been leveled at the Fed in at least half a century. William McChesney Martin ran the Fed for almost 19 years (1951-70) during a period that set the stage […]
Bond yields have drifted up 0.25% over the past month. Real yields on TIPs have barely budged from around –1%, so the move in bonds has translated into rising inflation expectations — now solidly above 2.5% for the next decade. The persistence of negative real yields is surprising – with the Fed likely to finally […]
The two front covers from The Economist, thirteen months apart, represent an overdue liberal education. Much of the mainstream press has heralded the energy transition to renewables as a source of jobs, innovation and everything else good including lower CO2 emissions. In September 2020 The Economist ran a leader titled Is it the end of […]
Yesterday the IMF warned central banks around the world to be “very, very vigilant” about inflation. The Fed and its peers employ legions of economists and it’s doubtful the IMF will have triggered a sudden reassessment in marble halls in Washington, Frankfurt or Tokyo. But their outlook will add to the growing concern investors have […]
Covid introduced us to first-time meetings over Zoom. Last week I had the pleasure of meeting Jack Jeffords and Adam Bloomberg, from Mount Pleasant, SC, in person after having first met them both via a video call several months ago. Recognizing a familiar face along with the person’s voice reinforced how helpful it is to […]
In June of last year my wife and I fled the draconian lockdown imposed on New Jersey for the south (see Having a Better Pandemic in Charleston, SC). Whereas back then our autocratic governor had even forbidden a solitary walk in the park, Charleston SC felt like a world apart. We were left awestruck at […]
The global energy crisis is becoming the biggest investment story of 2021. US consumers are uniquely unaffected so far by spiraling prices for natural gas and coal. Crude oil continues to cause some discomfort at the White House, which regularly pleads with OPEC to offset their own policies by increasing supply. Limited export capacity for […]
