Mohamed El-Erian maintained his criticism of the Federal Reserve, with an op-ed on Monday morning (see Fed and ECB still behind the inflation curve). It’s remarkable that the ECB’s “hawkish pivot” simply resulted in a fourth quarter tightening no longer being off the table. The Fed meanwhile moves ahead in their predictable fashion even while […]
The other day my partner Henry Hoffman was commenting on what his family pays for natural gas to heat their home in Pelham, NY. Winters in the northeast US are not for everyone – your blogger misses most of the worst weather by evacuating to Florida for a few months. Natural gas is the most […]
Last year fund outflows totaled $1.94BN for the midstream energy infrastructure sector (still often referred to as the MLP sector even though most of the market cap is corporations) according to JPMorgan. October was the only positive month, at a modest $6MM. 2021 was the third straight year that fund outflows exceeded $1.9BN. The last […]
Markets interpreted Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference bearishly last week. This was mostly because of omissions – he didn’t rule out raising rates at a faster pace than once a quarter, and he didn’t rule out beginning with a 50bp hike in March. As ever, monetary policy will be data-dependent. Eurodollar futures flattened further, […]
It’s a measure of the increased importance of natural gas to the world economy that geopolitical tensions now move its price the way crude oil has responded for decades. Russian troops massing on the border with Ukraine have shed an uncomfortable light on Europe’s vulnerable natural gas supply. Climate extremists are partly to blame because […]
It’s easy to sympathize with Cathie Wood’s plaintive cry that value stocks look like a bubble. As long-time energy investors, we’ve watched awestruck as the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) traced out its stratospheric path for both performance and AUM. “Bubble” was a wholly inadequate sobriquet (see ARKK’s Investors Have In Aggregate Lost Money). Having reached […]
Jamie Dimon thinks the Fed may tighten rates six or seven times this year. Bill Ackman believes the Fed should punctuate the start of the tightening cycle with a 50bp hike in order to regain some credibility. Whatever their self-image, this is a dovish FOMC. Central bank bond buying is set to continue until March, […]
Investing based on Environmental, Social and Governance criteria (ESG) continues to gain following. Committing capital to companies that strive to do good appeals. Naturally, every company claims ESG credentials – because the criteria are so flexible it’s an inclusive definition. My favorite is Lockheed Martin’s regular membership of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. If a […]
In Fed chair Jay Powell’s testimony yesterday during his renomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, he stuck to his familiar narrative of blaming inflation primarily on supply bottlenecks. We think excessive fiscal and monetary stimulus are more important reasons. One of the more persuasive charts is of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). The Fed likes […]
Last Thursday Jim Cramer described the performance of the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) run by Cathie Wood as “attrocious”. This caught my attention – Cramer, whether you love him or not, doesn’t often criticize other asset managers. It turns out that the demise of ARKK highlights what happens too frequently in finance. To wit, because […]
