The energy sector, already responding to inflation in recent months, has been a clear winner from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Few countries in history have striven for energy independence as much as America. Having achieved it, the US is now in a position to help Europeans achieve energy security. They have no hope of energy […]
In the US, energy independence has been a sought after goal for generations. Ever since the 1973 Arab oil embargo in response to the Yom Kippur War, US presidents have spoken out in favor of reducing our dependence on foreign oil – notably OPEC. There are several definitions of energy independence — The definition of […]
What’s the best shape for the yield curve? Today’s flat verging on inverted shape isn’t optimal. It suggests the market is worried that the Fed will tighten too much, causing a recession. It also makes it hard for banks to make much money extending credit, because they typically lend for longer maturities while funding themselves […]
There were few places to hide last quarter. The S&P500 was –4.6% with nine of its eleven sectors losing. Energy sparkled at +39% and Utilities were +4.8%. Bonds were even worse, with the Bloomberg Aggregate –6.2%. Close to our hearts, pipelines (as defined by the American Energy Independence Index) were +24.5%. Low yields have underpinned […]
The Administration’s planned release of 1 million barrels of oil a day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is borne of their frustration with high prices. Average crude prices have been higher under Biden than Trump, even after adjusting for the collapse during Covid (not Trump’s fault) and the jump following Russia’s invasion (not Biden’s […]
Europe’s realization that it needs a strategy to ensure energy security has provided a further boost to US natural gas stocks. Last week was especially good – NextDecade (NEXT) added another customer for their proposed Rio Grande Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export facility. By coincidence we had just interviewed Matthew Mott, SVP of their Next […]
In mid-January in Why You Shouldn’t Expect A Return To 2% Inflation we explained some of the persistent upward pressures on inflation. Since then ten year inflation expectations derived from the treasury bond market have increased by 0.5%. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a big factor, but nonetheless a half point increase over the next […]
Most US energy investors are familiar with Cheniere, America’s leading exporter of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG). Founded in 1996, the company was originally dedicated to increasing domestic supply, first as an oil & gas exploration business and then as an LNG importing company, which looked unlikely to keep up with growing demand. The Shale Revolution […]
It must have been a lively FOMC meeting last week. The Fed has obviously committed their biggest mistake in living memory, and they finally started to normalize short term rates. They’re a year late, to the evident frustration of James Bullard who dissented on the 0.25% increase because he preferred 0.50%. The FOMC revised up […]
Investors have endured several body blows this year. Inflation was already rising due to the strong rebound from Covid exacerbated by last year’s $1.9TN Covid relief spending. The long heralded and late removal of excessive monetary accommodation is about to start. More recently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has abruptly upended decades of western engagement, ushering […]
