In Fed chair Jay Powell’s testimony yesterday during his renomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, he stuck to his familiar narrative of blaming inflation primarily on supply bottlenecks. We think excessive fiscal and monetary stimulus are more important reasons. One of the more persuasive charts is of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). The Fed likes […]
Last Thursday Jim Cramer described the performance of the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) run by Cathie Wood as “attrocious”. This caught my attention – Cramer, whether you love him or not, doesn’t often criticize other asset managers. It turns out that the demise of ARKK highlights what happens too frequently in finance. To wit, because […]
Although markets were quiet over the Christmas break, treasury yields drifted steadily upward. On the first trading day of the new year the ten year yield burst higher by 0.12%. Although the Fed seemed to bring inflation expectations under control at their most recent FOMC meeting in December, this is now starting to reverse. The […]
As we noted last week, the world doesn’t need another anodyne “2022 Outlook”. So we’ve put together a set of upside scenarios that are plausible but not consensus. Last week we published The Upside Case For Pipelines – Part 1. This examined factors unrelated to commodity prices that could provide the sector a boost. This […]
The world doesn’t need another “what to expect in 2022” outlook piece. Inboxes are full of them this time of year. Therefore, what follows is part 1 of a two-part look at what could create upside surprises for midstream energy infrastructure. The downside is well understood and was experienced in full force quite recently. On […]
Today is Boxing Day. The US is rare among English-speaking countries in not celebrating the day following Christmas. Perhaps the habit was dropped following the War of Independence in a further shedding of the colonial yoke. Our family continues to enjoy Boxing Day even after nearly 40 years in the US. It is in truth […]
Build Back Better (BBB) includes many provisions beyond the scope of energy and interest rates, the two topics this blog covers. But to the extent that Senator Joe Manchin (D-WVa) has torpedoed progressive goals on climate and $3TN in additional debt, he’s demonstrated better judgment than the rest of his party. Start with the debt. […]
If you weren’t able to join Thursday’s webinar, SL Advisors Midstream Energy and Inflation Outlook, you can watch a recording here. The media referred to the Fed’s “hawkish pivot” following Wednesday’s revised dot plot and faster taper. More accurate is that chair Jay Powell confirmed that the FOMC was following the market’s earlier revisions to […]
Sign up here for this Thursday’s webinar at 12 eastern. SL Advisors’ Midstream Energy and Inflation Update. Allianz SE’s Mohamed El-Erian recently said the, “Transitory Inflation Call Likely Fed’s Worst Ever.” There is some competition for that title. Just in my career (1980-) you’d have to include Alan Greenspan’s summer 1987 tightening which was soon […]
Sign up here for this Thursday’s webinar at 12 eastern. SL Advisors’ Midstream Energy and Inflation Update Last week an investor asked us what he should do with his bond portfolio. We began publishing a monthly newsletter in January 2010 and over the years it evolved to the now twice-weekly blog. The poor outlook for […]
