The Fed has a poor forecasting record, something Wall Street never tires of pointing out. The chart below from Barclays shows the FOMC’s constant self-correction on inflation through successive meetings. Fed chair Powell downplays the blue dots but often refers to them at his press conferences. Usually, the dots move towards the market as the […]
You might think last year’s 39.5% outperformance of the S&P500 by the pipeline sector was a record but in 2016 the margin was 42.0%. This followed a harrowing 41.0% underperformance the prior year. However, the past two years have been the best on record, with the American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) beating the S&P500 by […]
Readers know not to expect bearish views on energy from this blog. A year ago, we offered ten reasons why we thought the outlook was positive (see The Upside Case For Pipelines – Part 1 and Part 2). We were right about the direction but not all our reasons played out. Below is a report […]
Consumer sentiment is as bad as 1980 when inflation was 13%. The Fed funds rate swung from 17% to 9% before peaking at 19% in early 1981. Eight US marines died in Iran in a failed attempt to rescue our hostages. John Lennon was shot. No wonder Ronald Reagan won election later that year. Consumers […]
Christmas pudding is among my favorite traditions of the season. Like marmite, it’s only offered by English parents, and failure to acquire a taste when young quickly becomes permanent. Our children were offered a perfunctory opportunity and only one chance at rejection, a rule I imposed to ensure an adequate supply for the rest of […]
My visceral reaction upon reading headlines such as Martin Wolf’s “Glimmers of light in a terrible year” in the Financial Times is to counter with positives. I am a glass half full guy, a prerequisite to navigating 2015-20 when pipeline stocks lagged the S&P500 for five years out of six. Wolf says, “Few will regret […]
For the first time in history, nurses who work for Britain’s National Health Service went on strike last week. They’re demanding a 19% pay increase, to make up for current inflation as well as the “20 per cent that has been eroded” from pay over the past decade, according to union leader Pat Cullen. Nurses […]
The energy sector is closing out a strong year weakly. This shouldn’t detract from the fundamentals, which remain strong. The American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) is 36% ahead of the S&P500 YTD after finishing 10% ahead last year. That almost two-year period of outperformance is the best since the index’s inception date in 2010. Battle-hardened […]
How do you conservatively value illiquid assets in a fund that offers liquidity to existing investors and accepts money from new ones? That’s the unsolvable question inadequately answered by the $125BN Blackstone Real Estate Investment Trust (BREIT), which is why they were forced to suspend withdrawals. Private equity funds typically raise money and invest it […]
Dinner in late 2017 with Enlink’s soon to be CEO Mike Garberding and his management team was the most expensive I’ve ever had. Not because I had to pick up the check – they were gracious hosts. But because I left the restaurant impressed with Garberding’s grasp of the company’s opportunities and knowledge of the […]
