Last week there were two pieces of news that confirmed the bullish long term outlook for natural gas. On Thursday the WSJ reported on the Behind The Meter (BTM) arrangements that are becoming common (see AI Data Centers, Desperate for Electricity, Are Building Their Own Power Plants). This is faster than connecting with the grid […]
The last few weeks have been challenging for the bullish story on natural gas. On Thursday evening Venture Global (VG) disclosed that they’d lost an arbitration case with BP over their Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal. The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) found that VG had breached its obligation to make a timely declaration of the […]
BP recently published their 2025 Energy Outlook. When big oil producers make projections about consumption it becomes a political document. Climate extremists are quick to accuse companies of opposing the energy transition and consigning the world to ruinous warming. Yet capital commitments need to be based on rational expectations, not aspirational ones. Earlier this year […]
The energy sector is leaving investors unimpressed. YTD the American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) is +5% and seems to be marking time. The S&P500, increasingly dominated by tech and AI exposure, is +13%. Long-time clients, having enjoyed several strong years, hope the better days will soon return. More recent investors demand to know what’s gone […]
Investors are routinely advised to incorporate some international exposure into their portfolios. This can be to add diversification or, in the case of emerging markets, to participate in faster-growing economies. For a US-based investor, this is at best a waste of time. Worse, it can introduce unneeded complexity, cost and poor returns. By investing in […]
I’m traveling in Italy and am not so distracted by the cultural and culinary delights to have overlooked the news on NextDecade (NEXT). I’ve watched the subsequent stock price fall with disappointment. They lowered EBITDA guidance on Trains 1-5 from $1.1BN (midpoint of prior $0.9-1.3BN) to $1BN, starting in 2030. Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) is […]
President Trump continues to heap pressure on the FOMC to cut rates, to the alarm of every economist and bond analyst. Central bank independence is the gold standard for western nations, the only way to assure that politicians don’t seek to juice growth synchronized with the election cycle. Fed chair William McChesney Martin Jr, who […]
Many years ago, when we were researching silver mining companies, I was fascinated to learn how insensitive production and consumption were to prices. Unlike gold, which is mostly held as an investment, silver has many industrial uses. Consumer electronics represents over a third of demand. Silver has few good substitutes and is a comparatively small […]
Goldman Sachs released a report last week forecasting that Brent crude will slip into “the low $50s” by late next year. It currently trades at around $66 per barrel, down $8 from its year-end level end and $11 over the past year. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in their most recent Short Term Energy Outlook […]
Now that we’re more than six months into Trump 2.0, comparisons with Trump 1.0 are spreading. For energy investors, Trump’s first term was a huge disappointment compared with the high expectations held by many when he took office. A year ago, as investors pondered the impact of a Kamala Harris presidency, we were often asked […]
