Entries by Simon Lack

Will Fall Seasonals Cause The Market To Rise?

SL Advisors Talks Markets
SL Advisors Talks Markets
Will Fall Seasonals Cause The Market To Rise?







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Students of stock market history will know that September is seasonally the worst month of the year. This month is typical. Some may think it’s October because of the crashes that month in 1929 and 1987. Only a few years into my Wall Street career, I returned home on October 19th, 1987, and solemnly warned […]

The Super Cycle Or Peak Oil?

SL Advisors Talks Markets
SL Advisors Talks Markets
The Super Cycle Or Peak Oil?







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In March of 2020 when crude oil was collapsing dragging energy stocks, including pipelines, along, I tried to focus on the positive, which was that it had become cheaper to drive places. Except there was nowhere to go because of the lockdown. And even if there had been, I would have had to make roughly […]

Offshore Wind vs Onshore

SL Advisors Talks Markets
SL Advisors Talks Markets
Offshore Wind vs Onshore







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A couple of weeks ago in Windpower Faces a Tempest, we highlighted the challenges facing offshore wind both in the US and Europe. A good friend of mine, a lawyer who has made his career doing energy deals, took issue with the blog post. A spirited text message interaction ensued, continued in person over two […]

Crude Climbs The Wall Of Supply Worries

SL Advisors Talks Markets
SL Advisors Talks Markets
Crude Climbs The Wall Of Supply Worries







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Crude oil has rallied recently, in a much delayed reaction to numerous analyst forecasts that have been bullish all year. A couple of months ago Goldman’s commodities head Jeff Currie, who is leaving the bank, cut his year-end forecast for Brent crude from $95 per barrel to $86 while maintaining his long term bullish outlook. […]

Pipelines Returning More Cash

SL Advisors Talks Markets
SL Advisors Talks Markets
Pipelines Returning More Cash







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The old MLP model rarely saw stock buybacks. Traditionally the General Partner (GP) would sell assets to the MLP it controlled in a non-arms-length transaction. The MLP would issue equity and debt to pay for them. MLPs were sellers of their own units, not buyers. Today’s midstream energy infrastructure sector has left that model behind. […]

Windpower Faces A Tempest

SL Advisors Talks Markets
SL Advisors Talks Markets
Windpower Faces A Tempest







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At the end of August Orsted, a Danish developer of wind turbines, announced they’d be delaying their first planned installation off the New Jersey coast until 2026. They blamed supply chain issues, interest rates and insufficient US Federal tax credits. The Federal government had only recently approved the project. New Jersey Democrat governor Phil Murphy […]

Why Are Real Yields Rising?

SL Advisors Talks Markets
SL Advisors Talks Markets
Why Are Real Yields Rising?







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The members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could be forgiven for feelings of quiet satisfaction. They’ve raised short term rates higher than most observers expected, and odds of the consequent recession have been receding. The increase in the unemployment rate to 3.8% on Friday leaves it still well below full employment. Yet inflation […]

The Growing LNG Trade

SL Advisors Talks Markets
SL Advisors Talks Markets
The Growing LNG Trade







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Nearly three years ago, French utility company Engie pulled out of negotiations with NextDecade (NEXT) to buy Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Concerns about leaks during the production of natural gas (methane) were the reason. Methane is a GreenHouse Gas (GHG) that is many times more potent than CO2 over a decade or so at trapping heat in […]

Growth Is Gassy Not Oily

SL Advisors Talks Markets
SL Advisors Talks Markets
Growth Is Gassy Not Oily







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We’ve been critical of Magellan Midstream’s (MMP) proposed sale to Oneok (OKE) for months (see Oneok Does A Deal Nobody Needs), mostly because it forces MMP unitholders to pay taxes now that didn’t need paying and for some may never be paid. But we do agree with MMP CEO Aaron Milford that the growth opportunities […]

The Sunshine State Runs On Natural Gas

SL Advisors Talks Markets
SL Advisors Talks Markets
The Sunshine State Runs On Natural Gas







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If you google “Florida solar” or “Florida natural gas”, both searches return around 150 million results. NextEra Energy, which owns Florida Power and Light (FPL), the utility that covers much of the state, is targeting zero emissions by 2045. Their 2022 ESG report says FPL expects to quadruple its solar generation capacity by 2031. They […]

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