Entries by Simon Lack

Washington-DC Based Energy Experts Offer Their Outlook

We had an opportunity to meet with a Washington-DC based independent research firm, specializing in energy policy and geopolitics last week.  The following is from our notes on their discussion. On Iran, one principal, a highly decorated ex CIA officer and Iran expert, thought markets continue to underestimate the risk to oil infrastructure and production […]

Why Oil Production May Disappoint

E&P companies routinely drill wells but hold off completing them until a later date. Completion includes creating a cement outer wall for the well to avoid leaks, and firing holes in the exterior in preparation for injection of fracking fluid under pressure. Typically wells can be drilled in sequence, as the drilling equipment is moved […]

Pipelines Slowly Returning Cash

2020 should be the year in which pipeline companies deliver on the promised increase in Free Cash Flow (FCF). The Coming Pipeline Cash Gusher remains the strongest bull case for midstream energy infrastructure. We’ll be updating these projections once companies provide updated 2020 guidance on spending in the next few weeks. A trend towards returning […]

EnLink Aims for Positive Free Cash Flow

It’s a sign of the market’s evolving view of pipeline stocks that EnLink Midstream’s (ENLC) distribution cut was followed by a modest bounce in the stock. A cut had been widely expected, and during the conference call with analysts some questioned whether the 34% reduction was big enough.  MLP investors are no longer solely focused […]

Clean Fossil Fuels May Be Coming

Tokyo enjoys on average 1,800 sunny hours a year, less than half of sun-drenched Arizona. It’s also subject to extreme weather, such as typhoons. Arizona may be a candidate for solar power, but if Japan’s capital relied on the sun for its electricity, it would require battery back-up to provide the 25 Gigawatts (GW) its […]

It’s Iran’s Move

If one thing’s clear about recent developments in the Middle East, it’s that events defy prediction. Yet timing trades in the energy sector requires the seemingly impossible. On Monday, we listened to a thoughtful call arranged by RW Baird with Greg Priddy, Director, Global Energy and Middle East, at Stratfor. Greg expects a measured, near […]

Stocks Have Been Cheaper

We’ve been using the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) as a measure of the relative attractiveness of stocks for many years. The ERP is the earnings yield (i.e. the reciprocal of the P/E ratio) minus the ten year treasury yield. It compares stocks with bonds, allowing today’s relationship to be compared with history. The S&P500’s P/E […]

Looking Back on 2019

Our twice-weekly blog saw a 30% increase in pageviews during 2019, along with a healthy jump in subscribers. It’s reposted across several other websites, and we believe it’s the most widely read blog on midstream energy infrastructure. The interest level shown by readers, as well as questions asked by investors, both influence our choice of […]