Last week JPMorgan forecast that the Fed will raise rates at their next nine meetings, resulting in a 2.25% hike in short term rates by March 2023. They warned that inflation is entering a “feedback loop”, whereby higher wages demanded by workers to compensate for eroding purchasing power feed back into higher prices. Over the […]
The last two years have provided an empirical test of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), the idea that a government can borrow indefinitely in its own currency with no fear of bankruptcy. Stephanie Kelton is the cheerleader for testing the limits of fiscal prudence – I reviewed her book in late 2020 (see Reviewing The Deficit […]
European policymakers are being forced to reassess energy policy. Premature reliance on intermittent renewables came up short last Fall (see Europe Follows California Into Renewables Oblivion). More recently, the EU’s reliance on Russia for 40% of its natural gas imports is being exposed as especially unwise with Russian troops poised to invade Ukraine. Britain has […]
Friday afternoon’s warning from the White House that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could come at any time did at least distract attention from Thursday’s CPI. Energy stocks rose while the S&P500 fell – a welcome negative correlation. Bonds also recouped their losses from the prior day. Over several decades the bond market’s sensitivity to […]
Mohamed El-Erian maintained his criticism of the Federal Reserve, with an op-ed on Monday morning (see Fed and ECB still behind the inflation curve). It’s remarkable that the ECB’s “hawkish pivot” simply resulted in a fourth quarter tightening no longer being off the table. The Fed meanwhile moves ahead in their predictable fashion even while […]
The other day my partner Henry Hoffman was commenting on what his family pays for natural gas to heat their home in Pelham, NY. Winters in the northeast US are not for everyone – your blogger misses most of the worst weather by evacuating to Florida for a few months. Natural gas is the most […]
Last year fund outflows totaled $1.94BN for the midstream energy infrastructure sector (still often referred to as the MLP sector even though most of the market cap is corporations) according to JPMorgan. October was the only positive month, at a modest $6MM. 2021 was the third straight year that fund outflows exceeded $1.9BN. The last […]
Markets interpreted Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference bearishly last week. This was mostly because of omissions – he didn’t rule out raising rates at a faster pace than once a quarter, and he didn’t rule out beginning with a 50bp hike in March. As ever, monetary policy will be data-dependent. Eurodollar futures flattened further, […]
It’s a measure of the increased importance of natural gas to the world economy that geopolitical tensions now move its price the way crude oil has responded for decades. Russian troops massing on the border with Ukraine have shed an uncomfortable light on Europe’s vulnerable natural gas supply. Climate extremists are partly to blame because […]
It’s easy to sympathize with Cathie Wood’s plaintive cry that value stocks look like a bubble. As long-time energy investors, we’ve watched awestruck as the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) traced out its stratospheric path for both performance and AUM. “Bubble” was a wholly inadequate sobriquet (see ARKK’s Investors Have In Aggregate Lost Money). Having reached […]
