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For the past few months the eurodollar futures market has steadily priced in the FOMC’s abandonment of “transitory” in its assessment of inflation. More often than not the Fed follows the market. The typical absence of public comments that precedes FOMC meetings was extended while Biden contemplated renewing Powell’s term. In short order, Powell’s reappointment […]
On Monday the Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that 27.3 Gigawatts (GW) of natural gas power plants will be added to the US fleet over the next three years, representing a 6% increase from current capacity. The US is blessed with abundant supplies of natural gas, sufficient to power the country for many decades. Many […]
It’s easy to criticize the Fed. They’ve maintained their uber-accommodative monetary policy for probably a year longer than needed. Once the vaccine breakthrough was announced last November, prudence dictated that they anticipate an economic rebound and begin normalizing rates. Instead their bond buying has had the effect of partially monetizing Federal debt issued to fund […]
We often get questions on the correlation between pipeline stocks and crude oil. Most investors intuitively believe they are linked – and inconveniently they seem especially so when prices are falling. March of last year is a recent example. Pipelines are a volume business — the “toll model” has often been used to describe the […]
Following last week’s 6.2% inflation print, eurodollar futures fully priced in 0.75% of tightening by the end of next year. The approximate rate path envisages tapering by the summer, and rate hikes commencing around the same time. Beyond December ‘23 the curve is so flat that in effect the market expects the tightening cycle to […]
Democrat policies have so far been more positive than many expected for the energy sector. Those regions and countries that have aggressively pursued renewables have demonstrated the challenges that arise when power is too reliant on unreliable, weather-dependent sources. Crossing a 20% share from solar panels and windmills seems to be the threshold at which […]
Pipeline earnings last week provided further support for the bull market in energy. Cheniere is +67% so far this year. The strong global market for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) caused them to increase their 2021 EBITDA guidance to a midpoint of $4.8BN, up $0.1BN. They also provided 2022 guidance of $5.8-6.3BN. The company has signed […]
On Thursday the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released updated figures on proved reserves as of 2016. In order to count as proved, companies must be reasonably certain that the reserves are recoverable under existing operating and economic conditions. Improvements in technology have increased the amount of recoverable reserves from some shale formations. The dramatic […]
Schlumberger (SLB) provides services worldwide in support of gas and oil exploration and production companies. They are at the sharp end of shifts in production, and as such have an interesting perspective on the upheaval in the crude oil market. A recent investor presentation highlighted that increased global demand of around 1 MMBD (million barrels […]
