Last week stocks shuddered as ten year yields dipped below treasury bills, reminding investors that yield curve inversions eerily precede recessions. A Cleveland Fed model using the yield curve gives a 30% probability of a recession within a year, up from 24% in December. Nonetheless, the S&P500 is within 5% of its all-time high, reflecting […]
JPMorgan’s recent Eye on the Market: Energy Outlook 2019 is the best analysis we’ve seen of the Green New Deal (GND). Author Mike Cembalest, whom I know from when I worked there, as always takes a balanced approach supported by insightful research. Cembalest breaks down the challenge aided by figures and charts to pick the […]
Years ago, before the Shale Revolution became the phenomenon it is, comparisons were often made between MLPs and REITs. Both offered attractive yields from real assets, and income-seeking investors were drawn to them. As a result, their performance tracked each other pretty closely. Investors focused on the relative value of one versus another generally kept […]
Investing based on environmental, social and governance principles (ESG) is intended to make the world a better place. It’s a loosely-used term, and definitions vary widely. Seeking companies with good governance seems so obvious that it scarcely belongs in ESG. But environmental and social principles carry the suggestion that investment return shouldn’t be the only […]
The point of a public equity listing is to be able to access public markets for financing, to use the stock as a currency for acquisitions, and to provide liquidity for investors. A company’s cost of equity moves inversely with its stock price, just like bond yields and prices. Access to cheap equity is vital […]
Environmental activists who are against all fossil fuels often accuse their opponents of being “climate deniers”. They claim a scientific basis for their often extreme views, asserting that rejecting their solutions for climate change is to reject science. In fact, the Green New Deal (GND) and its supporters use science selectively to support their objectives […]
The United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) combines life expectancy, education and income to provide a more complete picture of well-being than simply considering GDP per capita. If one chart can illustrate the global challenge of combatting climate change, it might be the scatterplot below. HDI is inextricably linked to energy consumption. 100 Gigajoules (GJ) […]
Like Warren Buffett’s legions of followers, we enjoy reading his annual letter. He writes as clearly as he thinks. Buffett’s also a great interviewee, and his TV appearances with Becky Quick on CNBC are engaging – although it’s quicker and almost as illuminating to read the transcript. Buffett is quick to admit mistakes, which simply […]
