Looking Back on 2019
Our twice-weekly blog saw a 30% increase in pageviews during 2019, along with a healthy jump in subscribers. It’s reposted across several other websites, and we believe it’s the most widely read blog on midstream energy infrastructure.
The interest level shown by readers, as well as questions asked by investors, both influence our choice of topics. Reviewing the past year’s stats provides a useful perspective on what pipeline investors are thinking about.
Our most read blog post of the year was When Will MLPs Recover? It was published on November 13th. It didn’t catch the low, which came in early December, but the recent rally has lifted prices nicely above their mid-November level. Coming on the heels of a weak October, always-fragile sentiment plunged to utter resignation among some. MLPs lagged midstream energy infrastructure by a wide margin in 2019, with the Alerian MLP Index up 9% compared with the American Energy Independence Index which is up 23%. It’s a consequence of the narrow investor base for MLPs.
The Coming Pipeline Cash Gusher was #2, offering our most eloquent response to the question about sector recovery. Free Cash Flow (FCF) has not historically been a metric used by MLPs. Two of the best performers in 2019, TC Energy (TRP) and Enbridge (ENB), do generate healthy FCF. Their capital allocation reflects values inspired by Canadian Presbyterian parsimony. Their strong 2019 returns suggest that as other pipeline companies increase FCF, their stock prices will also rise. We’ll be updating this analysis following 4Q19 earnings when companies provide updated 2020 growth capex guidance.
American Energy Independence is Imminent was #3, celebrating the many positives for the U.S. that increased domestic energy production is bringing.
AMLP’s Tax Bondage was #4. This was originally published in January 2018, and is our most read blog over the past two years. Explaining the disastrous tax drag to investors in AMLP invariably draws gratitude from the newly informed.
Why Energy Transfer Can’t Get Respect came in at #5. Too few writers are willing to be critical of the sector they follow. Your investment team is heavily invested in many of the companies we cover. When they do things we disagree with, I am incensed. We sell out if we conclude there’s no hope of management making sound decisions and acting with integrity. But it’s foolish to ignore valuation, and position sizing needn’t be binary (i.e. invested or not invested), it can be scaled to reflect all the relevant factors. Publicly criticizing a CEO to several thousand readers can provide the same satisfaction as impulsively dumping the stock, and often makes for better investment returns.
Our biggest single day of pageviews came on October 9th, driven by Energy Transfer’s Weak Governance Costs Them.
In addition to our blog, we do a weekly podcast which is about six months old. It is steadily gaining listeners. Like our blog, it covers the sector but also takes a political view on issues like climate change that have big implications for our business. A recent episode, The Coming Rally in MLPs, was our most popular podcast. A couple of my personal favorites are Celebrity Climate Change Shaming and Greta’s Grandstanding. The most vocal climate extremists are often those least capable of critical analysis. The climate change debate has too few pragmatists seeking practical solutions. The middle ground, where we sit, is wide open.
We also do a quarterly webinar and periodic videos. Stop Flaring is our most popular video.
Finally, Twitter is an under-utilized resource that surprisingly few financial advisors use. I follow energy journalists and publications, and generally limit my tweets to energy (although occasionally that self-restraint lapses). If you want to know which stories we’re following today, check out @SimonLack.
We enjoy the engagement and feedback on all the material we produce. American Energy Independence is a fantastic story for this great country. There’s a bright future ahead.
We are invested in Enbridge , Energy Transfer and TC Energy
Important Disclosures
The information provided is for informational purposes only and investors should determine for themselves whether a particular service, security or product is suitable for their investment needs. The information contained herein is not complete, may not be current, is subject to change, and is subject to, and qualified in its entirety by, the more complete disclosures, risk factors and other terms that are contained in the disclosure, prospectus, and offering. Certain information herein has been obtained from third party sources and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of this information. Nothing provided on this site constitutes tax advice. Individuals should seek the advice of their own tax advisor for specific information regarding tax consequences of investments. Investments in securities entail risk and are not suitable for all investors. This site is not a recommendation nor an offer to sell (or solicitation of an offer to buy) securities in the United States or in any other jurisdiction.
References to indexes and benchmarks are hypothetical illustrations of aggregate returns and do not reflect the performance of any actual investment. Investors cannot invest in an index and do not reflect the deduction of the advisor’s fees or other trading expenses. There can be no assurance that current investments will be profitable. Actual realized returns will depend on, among other factors, the value of assets and market conditions at the time of disposition, any related transaction costs, and the timing of the purchase. Indexes and benchmarks may not directly correlate or only partially relate to portfolios managed by SL Advisors as they have different underlying investments and may use different strategies or have different objectives than portfolios managed by SL Advisors (e.g. The Alerian index is a group MLP securities in the oil and gas industries. Portfolios may not include the same investments that are included in the Alerian Index. The S & P Index does not directly relate to investment strategies managed by SL Advisers.)
This site may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and the future performance of the U.S. market generally. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “should,” “planned,” “estimated,” “potential” and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting a portfolio’s operations that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involves a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements or examples. None of SL Advisors LLC or any of its affiliates or principals nor any other individual or entity assumes any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, subsequent events or any other circumstances. All statements made herein speak only as of the date that they were made. r
Certain hyperlinks or referenced websites on the Site, if any, are for your convenience and forward you to third parties’ websites, which generally are recognized by their top level domain name. Any descriptions of, references to, or links to other products, publications or services does not constitute an endorsement, authorization, sponsorship by or affiliation with SL Advisors LLC with respect to any linked site or its sponsor, unless expressly stated by SL Advisors LLC. Any such information, products or sites have not necessarily been reviewed by SL Advisors LLC and are provided or maintained by third parties over whom SL Advisors LLC exercise no control. SL Advisors LLC expressly disclaim any responsibility for the content, the accuracy of the information, and/or quality of products or services provided by or advertised on these third-party sites.
All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be suitable or profitable for a client’s investment portfolio.
Past performance of the American Energy Independence Index is not indicative of future returns.
Leave a Reply
Want to join the discussion?Feel free to contribute!