In this week’s podcast, Simon Lack talks about the growing concerns on trade and how we think events will unfold.

Show Notes:

S&P500 finally had big release on trade fears (:41)

German economy contracted in 2Q (1:05)

Trump’s modest relaxation of tariffs to miss Christmas season too little (1:12)

Flat yield curve indicating fear of recession (1:24)

Investors are worried (1:33)

Outlines of final act are coming into view (1:33)

China deficit likely lower this year (2:00)

Tariffs having an impact

Setting stage for Trump to grab deal and declare victory (2:50)

Able to enter election year bragging about first president to take on China and win

More focused on Dow than any previous president (3:30)

More unilateralist approach reflects popular opinion (3:43)

America has protected shipping lanes for years (3:57)

Why are US troops in Germany? (4:17)

Nordstream 2 (4:27)

Bilateral trade negotiations suit US as biggest economy (5:06)

TPP didn’t fit this (5:15)

Replacing NAFTA with separate negotiations with Canada and Mexico (5:36)

It’s why EU exists (5:50)

Wait until UK tries for US deal after Brexit (6:17)

A less selfless US, more inclined to consider self-interest (7:40)

More transactional (7:50)

Not conventional wisdom among governing class, but popular among voters (8:00)