The IMF Will Need to Bail Out Europe

The FT has a very good summary of the current state of play in the European debt crisis. Yet another weekend summit critical to the survival of the Euro is upon us. Once again, bottom-up analysis of investments is held hostage to the macro issues at play.

The EU is designed to seek consensus and is antithetical to the type of strong leadership now required. Since no single leader will be held responsible if the whole edifice crashes down, all the political calculations are based on domestic politics. It’s democratic, but ill-suited to the problems they’re facing.

The FT article highlights some important points regarding the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Although €440 billion sounds like enough money, particularly if used as a first loss guarantee (theoretically increasing its firepower by 4-5 times) that’s not what’s really available. Prior bailouts of Greece, Portugal and Ireland have reduced this to  €250BN – and unsurprisingly these countries have withdrawn their pledges to the EFSF. In addition,  €230BN comes from Spain and Italy, and since Spain is quite possibly one of the future recipients of bailout funds the ultimate available funds shrink further.

For many months it’s been clear that German taxpayers would be writing a check – either to Greece or to their bondholders. But even that is looking less clear without sufficient bailout funds available. So it appears that the IMF will ultimately ride to the rescue. They’ve apparently already been asked, but the U.S. and U.K. both opposed such a move. One can only imagine the outcry in Congress at such a move. So making such support politically acceptable will no doubt require another round of robust risk reduction, since only when voters are poorer will they accept the need for U.S. money to bail out Europe.

But of course the U.S. is a net debtor as well. Things will work out – they invariably do when there’s no alternative. But the stage is set for macro issues to overwhelm everything else.

Force-feeding Capital to European Banks

There can be little doubt that the European sovereign debt crisis has finally drawn the full attention of Europe’s leaders. After following events from a more than discrete distance, it is starting to look as if a consensus is evolving around three principles:

1) Greater write-down of Greek debt

2) More realistic stress tests of Europe’s banks with a view to requiring them to reach 9-10% equity capital to risk-weighted assets over a fairly short period of time

3) Using the EFSF as a guarantor of first loss on sovereign debt, in effect increasing its firepower to €2 trillion or more.

The European Banking Authority’s (EBA) last stress tests identified only €2.5 billion in capital shortfall for the entire region, a ludicrously low figure that lost them great credibility. Mike Cembalest, JPMorgan’s Private Bank CIO, memorably commented that the number was so low he thought the results were being released by country alphabetically starting with Andorra. At the same time the IMF’s estimate of the needed additional capital was €100-200 billion.

However, there is a problem with forcing banks to raise additional capital. They may instead decide to shrink their balance sheets instead, a prospect noted in the FT today. Issuing equity at 0.5 X book value is scarcely an attractive proposition and selling assets must be a realistic alternative. But that could well lead to a sharp slowdown in lending, further hampering the EU region’s efforts to avoid (or emerge from) recession.

George Soros floats an interesting suggestion that governments should first unconditionally guarantee their banks to stabilize them, following up with recapitalization later when their share prices have presumably recovered.

While it’s positive that constructive solutions are now receiving consideration, holders of risky assets can still benefit from being short the Euro. The € continues to be the focal point of the global slowdown. We are long ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) as a hedge against other types of long equity risk in our hedge fund. The risk of a complete disaster is receding, but the solutions don’t look to be positive for European growth.

 

Disclosure: Author is long EUO

The Principal Agent Problem in Private Equity

Peter Morris has written an interesting article noting the principal-agent problem as it relates to investors in private equity. Peter spent 25 years working in financial services and is the author of a report written for the Center for the Study of Financial Innovation (CSFI) called Private Equity, Public Loss? Peter and others have pointed out the disparity between low returns earned by private equity investors and the ample compensation earned by the managers of those investments. The principal-agent problem Peter notes is not unique to private equity of course, but he makes a good case for much greater transparency around results for such investors and challenges the notion that “sophisticated” investors are well equipped to make well informed decisions in this arena. Investors in hedge funds have suffered through similarly poor results as Peter also notes, and he kindly refers to a book I have written called The Hedge Fund Mirage which explores this issue.

There are interesting public policy issues surrounding this entire area, in that public pension funds are increasingly allocating capital to alternative investment strategies in the hopes of reaching the 7-8% return targets they need to meet their obligations. Ultimately, a failure to meet those goals will have consequences for taxpayers throughout the developed world as workers retire if pension plan returns fail to met expectations.

How UBS mismanaged its way to a profit

The good news from UBS today is that they expect to post a modest profit for the third quarter.  This is in spite of losing $2.3 billion through the unauthorized trading of Kweku Adoboli. On top of that, the woefully inadequate risk oversight that Mr. Adoboli so painfully exposed has forced UBS to hasten the shrinking of their investment bank, incurring restructuring charges. However, in spite of these twin blows to their results, UBS expects to include a $1.5 billion Swiss franc profit from widening credit spreads on their debt. That’s right, because the company’s self-inflicted wound has soured investors on the bank’s prospects and therefore raised the yield on their debt, in the topsy-turvy world of accounting this is counted towards their profit. The green eye-shade logic is that because UBS owes money (on the bonds they’ve issued) the lower price for the bonds implies the value of what UBS owes has gone down. It’s the same as if the investors in those bonds just decided to forgive 5% of the face value.

Of course, UBS still owes the same amount of money, and borrowing just became more expensive for them. But the Looking Glass world of liability accounting regards this differently. So when UBS announces a profit for the third quarter, remember that it came about through the market’s recognition of their weak risk management structure.

Range Resources and the Pennsylvania Superior Court

Yesterday a court ruling in Pennsylvania cast doubt on the title of thousands of shale gas leases, as reported in Bloomberg . Range Resources (RRC) is as heavily invested in the Marcellus shale area, which includes Pennsylvania, as any other company out there. The company is well run and we like the management. The stock has also been exceptionally buoyant recently on takeover rumors. However, this news will likely put any potential acquisition on hold until the title issues are resolved, either by the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court or through state legislation. We are not currently invested in RRC although had been invested until recently when the U.S. Geologic Survey revised down their forecast of total reserves available in the Marcellus (which runs from NY State to Tennessee). This may create an opportunity to invest at lower prices once the story has had some time to play out.

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