We’re not the first MLP investors to be puzzled by sector weakness in the face of growing oil and gas production. This was visible most clearly on Wednesday, when a sharp drop in crude following inventory numbers caused similar drops in many MLPs. Crude prices are weak precisely because of the success of technology in lowering […]
Last week was the annual MLPA conference, in Orlando, Florida. It’s safe to say the guests at nearby Walt Disney World had a more carefree time than beleaguered MLP investors. One long-time attendee described the mood as “glum”, noting that energy sector investors had expected a more vigorous rebound. Although the conference is organized around […]
Last Wednesday Plains All American (PAGP) held their Investor Day. These events typically afford investors the opportunity to get more detail on the company, but Plains also has a sophisticated macro view of the oil market. As the biggest crude oil transportation company in America they naturally care a lot about North American output. CEO […]
With the resurgence in U.S. crude oil production over the last year, it was only a matter of time until shale output reached a new record. Based on recent actual production and the EIA’s forecast for a June increase of 122 MB/D (thousand barrels a day), the peak of March 2015 is only 57 MB/D […]
We thought it would be interesting to expand a little more on the notion that crude oil prices reflect the market’s confidence that oil in the future will be available on approximately the same terms as today (see Oil Futures Say Shale’s Here to Stay). The tool we’re using is the two year spread – […]
We alluded to this in May’s newsletter. About to lose a $1MM bet with Warren Buffett over whether hedge funds could beat stocks over ten years, hedge fund investor Ted Seides has brazenly shunned obscurity and instead offered an amusing public justification. It can be summarized thus: although I lost money I wasn’t wrong. I’ll […]
A couple of months ago (see Why Shale Upends Conventional Thinking) I promised to spread constructive thoughts about Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) across the ensuing weeks and months rather than use them all up on the first drop in prices. Two months and several percent later such parsimony was well advised. If your preference is […]
We’re in earnings season again, and last week we listened to US Silica’s (SLCA) conference call on Wednesday morning. Weakness in MLP prices due to softer crude oil is incongruous with the positive outlook communicated by SLCA’s CEO Bryan Shinn. Volumes and pricing were both up 15% quarter-on-quarter, with sand volumes in their Oil and […]
We’ve had a number of questions over the past 24 hours about the impact of the White House tax proposal on Master Limited Partnerships. Therefore, we’re posting our thoughts now rather than in our normal Sunday morning missive. There’s not a great deal of specifics so far, but we’ve put together a table illustrating how […]
Investors in Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) have long become accustomed to daily fluctuations in crude oil affecting sentiment for the sector. The slide describing midstream infrastructure as a toll model with limited commodity sensitivity has been dropped from client presentations. It’s no longer credible. The Shale Revolution has shifted the industry from one of stable […]
