Recently we’ve initiated a short position in Japanese Yen in our Fixed Income Strategy. Some observers have been forecasting economic catastrophe for Japan and its currency for many years based on its poor demographics and steadily worsening fiscal situation. Kyle Bass is one of the better known Japan bears, and he has written eloquently about the problems he foresees. Timing has been frustrating the Japan bears for years, in fact for decades, in spite of the compelling case that Kyle Bass and others like him make. Shorting Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) is not a new idea.

So it is with a healthy respect for the unsatisfying history of such investments that we are cautiously venturing into this area. What makes this an interesting opportunity today is the presence of some optionality around events which could weaken the Yen.

Japan’s trade situation has been worsening in recent months. For decades Japan has been a huge net exporter and has consequently amassed hundreds of billions in foreign assets. But in August the country experienced another steep fall in exports, the 18th consecutive month of deficit (seasonally adjusted) following the earthquake and tsunami of last year. Japan’s phase-out of nuclear power and increasing reliance on imported natural gas and crude oil represent a structural shift in its trade flows. The source of Japan’s historic capital surplus from its trade sector is beginning to reverse.

While Japan is suffering from lower exports to the EU, it’s worth noting that China is Japan’s biggest trading partner. Any slowdown in Chinese growth will have a disproportionate impact on Japan’s economy. The ongoing dispute over the Senkaku islands (Japanese name) or the Diaoyu (China’s) will most likely amount to nothing as far as investors are concerned, but there’s always the chance that a miscalculation on either side could lead to something more serious. One might imagine that a dispute with its biggest trading partner would hurt the Yen, although historically Japanese investors have reacted to trouble at home by repatriating assets and driving the value of the Yen up, so this is a bit of a wild card.

More tangibly, growth differentials continue to favor the U.S., with Japan’s economy likely to experience only around 0.5% real GDP growth in 2013, down from 2% this year. Japan is also facing its own version of a fiscal cliff and last week the BOJ announced it would increase its version of QE from 70TN Yen to 80TN to offset the likely GDP headwinds from the legislature’s failure so far to pass a budget.

All these issues represent some optionality, in that they may be resolved without consequence but also create the potential for downward pressure on the Yen. Promoting a strong currency seems to be a quaint notion nowadays for developed countries, as the Fed, ECB and BOJ all engage in the “race to the bottom” in order to try to stimulate growth through stronger exports. Japan is as well equipped as any to weaken its currency.

Finally, the US$/Yen exchange rate hasn’t been that interesting lately. After running up to 83 and back during the Summer it’s been directionless and is not far above the lowest levels in many years. A 5% drop in the US$/Yen exchange rate from here would be substantial, and doesn’t seem that likely. It may do nothing but there are plenty of catalysts that could drive the exchange rate higher (i.e. weaker Yen) and the longer term outlook for the currency is negative.

We are long the ProShares Ultra Short Yen (YCS) as a way to express this view.

Important Disclosures

The information provided is for informational purposes only and investors should determine for themselves whether a particular service, security or product is suitable for their investment needs. The information contained herein is not complete, may not be current, is subject to change, and is subject to, and qualified in its entirety by, the more complete disclosures, risk factors and other terms that are contained in the disclosure, prospectus, and offering. Certain information herein has been obtained from third party sources and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation is made with respect to the accuracy,  completeness or timeliness of this information. Nothing provided on this site constitutes tax advice. Individuals should seek the advice of their own tax advisor for specific information regarding tax consequences of investments.  Investments in securities entail risk and are not suitable for all investors. This site is not a recommendation nor an offer to sell (or solicitation of an offer to buy) securities in the United States or in any other jurisdiction.

References to indexes and benchmarks are hypothetical illustrations of aggregate returns and do not reflect the performance of any actual investment. Investors cannot invest in an index and do not reflect the deduction of the advisor’s fees or other trading expenses. There can be no assurance that current investments will be profitable. Actual realized returns will depend on, among other factors, the value of assets and market conditions at the time of disposition, any related transaction costs, and the timing of the purchase. Indexes and benchmarks may not directly correlate or only partially relate to portfolios managed by SL Advisors as they have different underlying investments and may use different strategies or have different objectives than portfolios managed by SL Advisors (e.g. The Alerian index is a group MLP securities in the oil and gas industries. Portfolios may not include the same investments that are included in the Alerian Index. The S & P Index does not directly relate to investment strategies managed by SL Advisers.)

This site may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and the future performance of the U.S. market generally. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “should,” “planned,” “estimated,” “potential” and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting a portfolio’s operations that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involves a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements or examples. None of SL Advisors LLC or any of its affiliates or principals nor any other individual or entity assumes any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, subsequent events or any other circumstances. All statements made herein speak only as of the date that they were made. r

Certain hyperlinks or referenced websites on the Site, if any, are for your convenience and forward you to third parties’ websites, which generally are recognized by their top level domain name. Any descriptions of, references to, or links to other products, publications or services does not constitute an endorsement, authorization, sponsorship by or affiliation with SL Advisors LLC with respect to any linked site or its sponsor, unless expressly stated by SL Advisors LLC. Any such information, products or sites have not necessarily been reviewed by SL Advisors LLC and are provided or maintained by third parties over whom SL Advisors LLC exercise no control. SL Advisors LLC expressly disclaim any responsibility for the content, the accuracy of the information, and/or quality of products or services provided by or advertised on these third-party sites.

All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be suitable or profitable for a client’s investment portfolio.

Past performance of the American Energy Independence Index is not indicative of future returns.