Eurodollar futures provide quite precise data about the market consensus forecast for interest rates. Since they extend out for ten years, they provide a rich set of information constantly updated about where market participants think 3 month Libor will be every three months. The FOMC recently started making public the interest rate forecasts of its members. They […]
I’ll be presenting on my book, The Hedge Fund Mirage, at the 2012 Factset Symposium Conference in Scottsdale, AZ March 19, and will be playing golf in Scottsdale over the weekend March 17-18.
We often write about companies involved in drilling for shale gas in the U.S. Their drilling success has depressed natural gas prices with little near term prospect of a bounce, and consequently we’ve focused on companies with low debt and cheap operating costs. Range Resources (RRC) Southwestern Energy (SWN), Devon Energy (DVN) and Comstock Resources […]
We’ve never been big believers in owning gold and silver. Warren Buffett’s comment (most recently in his 2011 letter released on Saturday) that all the gold in the world could be exchanged for “all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils…” with $1 trillion left over is […]
Last week Ford (F) announced plans to shift their pension fund even more heavily towards bonds. At a time when interest rates are ruinously low and equities should appear attractively priced to a long-term investor such as a pension fund this represents quite a radical move. As recently as 2006 the company had targeted an […]
In November of last year, Devon (symbol: DVN) completed its $3.5B share repurchase program announced in May of 2010. Under this program the company repurchased 49.2MM shares, for an average price of $71/share, reducing the share count by 10%! During the same period, management sold non-core acreage raising the cash to fund the repurchases, pay […]
On Amazon UK’s Investments and Securities List.
In recent years as hedge fund performance has become ever less appealing, the industry has responded in part by changing the way it describes itself (much cheaper than cutting fees or delivering better results). So when Absolute Return outlived its utility, since many funds were unable to deliver positive returns in excess of treasury bills no […]
Alistair Blair of Investors Chronicle provides an additional perspective on my book, The Hedge Fund Mirage, in an article out today. Mr. Blair has gone to the trouble of asking The Alternative Investment Management Association for a response. One of their Core Objectives is, “To provide an interactive and professional forum for our membership and act […]
Two articles concerning shale gas have caught my attention this morning. “The Death of Coal” reflects the view of some that under current EPA policies coal will continue to lose ground to natural gas as the fuel of choice for electricity generation. Cheap and relatively clean natural gas is eating into the demand for coal […]
