One day, probably in the not so distant future, Spencer Jakab of the Wall Street Journal will probably regret suggesting that natural gas prices may go negative, as he did in today’s article “Why Natural-Gas Prices Could Fade to Red”. It’s an attention grabbing headline, but is likely to be better known some time in […]
I have been invited to give the Keynote Address at this industry gathering in June. I am looking forward to the opportunity to meet with hedge fund industry professionals and discuss how investors can achieve better results than they have in the past.
My thanks to Hank Greenberg for revealing an example of what’s wrong with some areas of Finance. The VelocityShares Daily 2X VIX Short-Term ETN (TVIX) is an exchange-traded note issued by Credit Suisse. Its travails and those of its investors are well covered elsewhere. It’s been a bust, as befits a vehicle designed to provide leveraged exposure to movements […]
Today’s story in the NY Times about Marc Cohodes recounts a poignant tale of the fall of a formerly highly regarded hedge fund manager. I wrote about Marc Cohodes in my book, The Hedge Fund Mirage. A perennial bear and manager of a short-selling hedge fund, 2008 should have been the year he made a spectacular […]
March 2022. That is the point at which, according to eurodollar futures prices, three month Libor will reach the heady yield of 4%. Ten years from now until money market yields are restored to “equilibrium” as defined by the FOMC in their rate forecast issued for their January 24-25 meeting earlier this year (reproduced below). The time to […]
Although treasury yields have risen around 30 bps over the past couple of weeks, yields have not yet reached what the Federal Reserve itself might call equilibrium. The FOMC rate forecasts that the Fed published earlier this year reveal an intriguing inconsistency between the Fed’s actions and its own market forecasts. Operation Twist and its […]
On CNBC’s website today: http://www.cnbc.com/id/46759372
This interview about my book The Hedge Fund Mirage was broadcast on the BBC World Service earlier this morning. It also includes an interview with a hedge fund manager brave enough to go on and defend his industry.
Eurodollar futures provide quite precise data about the market consensus forecast for interest rates. Since they extend out for ten years, they provide a rich set of information constantly updated about where market participants think 3 month Libor will be every three months. The FOMC recently started making public the interest rate forecasts of its members. They […]
I’ll be presenting on my book, The Hedge Fund Mirage, at the 2012 Factset Symposium Conference in Scottsdale, AZ March 19, and will be playing golf in Scottsdale over the weekend March 17-18.
