Achilles Macris worked in the office of the CIO in JPMorgan’s London office during the time of the infamous “London Whale” trades. Achilles was a direct report to Chief Investment Officer Ina Drew. I worked with Ina for many years and I developed enormous respect for her abilities and judgment. The credit derivatives losses have […]
On Tuesday I attended the morning session of Agrium’s (AGU) Investor Day in NY (the second part was scheduled for Memphis to visit a couple of their facilities). We’re invested in Agrium, having been first drawn to the stock by Jana’s Barry Rosenstein. Last year Jana published a detailed criticism of the company, highlighting both its […]
Here is the first in what may become a series of financial market oddities brought on by the Federal government’s shutdown and the threat of a debt-ceiling related default. I noted a report that banks were stocking up their ATMs with additional cash in preparation for increased customer demand as we approach the October 17 […]
Bill Gross’s monthly investment outlook is invariably worth reading, and this month is no exception. His writing is engaging as well as insightful, and as the overseer of $2 trillion in assets he’s worthwhile listening to. It turns out that like me, Bill has re-examined the Fed’s interest rate forecasts following the non-taper last month. […]
Quarterly Outlook As is so often the case, the near term outlook for financial markets hinges on the two channels through which the government influences economic activity: monetary and fiscal policy. The Fed’s decision to continue Quantitative Easing via its $85 billion a month buying program showed how difficult it is to communicate the subtle […]
As we’re all being reminded, 1996 was the last time the Federal government was forced to shut down, the result of a budgetary dispute between then House Speaker Newt Gingrich and President Bill Clinton. It didn’t last that long, was economically inconsequential and was generally believed to have worse consequences for the Republicans than the […]
Credit Peter Thiel, Blackrock’s deputy chief investment officer for fundamental fixed income, for providing an honest assessment of the outlook for fixed income. “Overall returns of the market will continue to be negative as monetary policy shifts,” he said. So one of the biggest bond investors in the world has an appropriately cautious outlook on total return. Not […]
Fed Chairman Bernanke’s press conference on Wednesday was more interesting than usual. The decision not to “taper” (never a word the Fed has actually used) caught market participants by surprise. The Fed will continue to buy $85 billion of bonds every month until further notice. Perhaps the low interest rate bias of the presumptive Chairman […]
In my new book, Bonds Are Not Forever; The Crisis Facing Fixed Income Investors, I make the case that some big trends in the U.S. economy and Finance began shifting following the financial crisis of 2008, the consequences of which will include interest rates insufficient to compensate bond investors for inflation and taxes (hence the […]
In recent weeks I’ve heard quite a few people comment that they’re looking for “rising rate strategies”. It’s a seductive concept; interest rates are almost assuredly headed higher. The debate about tapering rages on, and clearly the bull market in bonds is over. Serial Quantitative Easing will transform to the Fed’s exit strategy from its […]
