The Shale Revolution has certainly provided America with more geopolitical freedom. The 1973 Arab oil embargo punished the U.S. for supporting Israel, as it fought Egypt and Syria. Shortages of gasoline visibly demonstrated the limits to U.S. actions. As a result, every president since Nixon has called for energy independence.

Swaggering energy dominance is the new goal, since independence has, by some measures, already been achieved. But reduced dependence on imports doesn’t bring immunity from price spikes, given that oil is a global commodity easily moved to the most eager buyer.

A benefit of investing in midstream energy infrastructure that we rarely hype is its domesticity. There are pipelines all over the world, but we stick to North America where property rights and rule of law are secure. Weakness in, say, the Turkish lira is of no concern.

Energy markets today are sanguine, in that there is little risk of disruption priced in. Meanwhile, global crude oil demand is growing at around 1.5 Million Barrels per Day (MMB/D). Saudi Aramco’s recent bond offering disclosed production capacity that’s more limited than many had thought.

Venezuela’s output continues to collapse, with U.S. sanctions kicking a chronically mis-managed economy already on its knees. Libya is on the verge of civil war, placing more output at risk. And now the waivers on Iranian exports are about to be cancelled, with the U.S. stated goal of reducing their oil exports to zero.

The 1941 U.S. embargo on Japanese imports of oil and gasoline products led within six months to Pearl Harbor. Today’s Iranian sanctions are similarly intended to heap more pressure on the regime. U.S. warships patrol the Strait of Hormuz, assuring the flow of oil from Iran’s neighbors. Conflict is not inevitable and is hardly a viable proposition for Iran’s leaders. Economic pressure may yet induce Iranian change in policy, or even regime. That’s clearly our goal. But a miscalculation, or the conclusion that no good options remain, are possible.

In The Absent Superpower, Peter Zeihan’s book on the shifting gepolitical balance caused by U.S. shale, he notes, “Iran has a phalanx of varied missile systems that could reach any point within the strait itself, with many of them capable of reaching the Saudi shoreline even across the wider points of the Persian Gulf.”

Militarily there’s no doubt about the winner, but oil supplies could still be disrupted. A third of global seaborne crude passes through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Qatari exports of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) account for a third of global LNG trade, with Kuwait importing LNG that travels north through the Strait.

Brent crude exhibits modest backwardation, of around $4 per barrel between June ’19 and June ’20 futures. Conflict with Iran would surely provoke a much bigger jump.

Energy has sunk to around 5% of the S&P500. It’s one of the few sectors (along with Defense) likely to perform well if U.S. military action occurs. Energy stocks, like crude oil, reflect little price premium for geopolitical uncertainty. Through last year pipeline stocks were sufficiently out of favor that their correlation with the S&P500 was sometimes negative. That’s just the relationship a hedge needs with its target portfolio.

Investors who are concerned about increasing geopolitical risks should overweight midstream energy infrastructure. It’s cheap, immune to war damage and provides good protection against Middle East conflict.

SL Advisors is the sub-advisor to the Catalyst MLP & Infrastructure Fund.  To learn more about the Fund,  please click here.

SL Advisors is also the advisor to an ETF (USAIETF.com).

Important Disclosures

The information provided is for informational purposes only and investors should determine for themselves whether a particular service, security or product is suitable for their investment needs. The information contained herein is not complete, may not be current, is subject to change, and is subject to, and qualified in its entirety by, the more complete disclosures, risk factors and other terms that are contained in the disclosure, prospectus, and offering. Certain information herein has been obtained from third party sources and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation is made with respect to the accuracy,  completeness or timeliness of this information. Nothing provided on this site constitutes tax advice. Individuals should seek the advice of their own tax advisor for specific information regarding tax consequences of investments.  Investments in securities entail risk and are not suitable for all investors. This site is not a recommendation nor an offer to sell (or solicitation of an offer to buy) securities in the United States or in any other jurisdiction.

References to indexes and benchmarks are hypothetical illustrations of aggregate returns and do not reflect the performance of any actual investment. Investors cannot invest in an index and do not reflect the deduction of the advisor’s fees or other trading expenses. There can be no assurance that current investments will be profitable. Actual realized returns will depend on, among other factors, the value of assets and market conditions at the time of disposition, any related transaction costs, and the timing of the purchase. Indexes and benchmarks may not directly correlate or only partially relate to portfolios managed by SL Advisors as they have different underlying investments and may use different strategies or have different objectives than portfolios managed by SL Advisors (e.g. The Alerian index is a group MLP securities in the oil and gas industries. Portfolios may not include the same investments that are included in the Alerian Index. The S & P Index does not directly relate to investment strategies managed by SL Advisers.)

This site may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and the future performance of the U.S. market generally. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “should,” “planned,” “estimated,” “potential” and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting a portfolio’s operations that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involves a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements or examples. None of SL Advisors LLC or any of its affiliates or principals nor any other individual or entity assumes any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, subsequent events or any other circumstances. All statements made herein speak only as of the date that they were made. r

Certain hyperlinks or referenced websites on the Site, if any, are for your convenience and forward you to third parties’ websites, which generally are recognized by their top level domain name. Any descriptions of, references to, or links to other products, publications or services does not constitute an endorsement, authorization, sponsorship by or affiliation with SL Advisors LLC with respect to any linked site or its sponsor, unless expressly stated by SL Advisors LLC. Any such information, products or sites have not necessarily been reviewed by SL Advisors LLC and are provided or maintained by third parties over whom SL Advisors LLC exercise no control. SL Advisors LLC expressly disclaim any responsibility for the content, the accuracy of the information, and/or quality of products or services provided by or advertised on these third-party sites.

All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be suitable or profitable for a client’s investment portfolio.

Past performance of the American Energy Independence Index is not indicative of future returns.