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EUROPE’S ENERGY CRISIS IS KEEPING ENERGY PRICES AND INFLATION HIGH
America leads the world in oil and gas production. We believe midstream energy infrastructure offers predictable cash flows to investors..
Blinded By The Bonds
German 30 year bunds yield 0.6%. Investors are inured to insultingly low yields, but somehow this still shocks. The ECB defines price stability as inflation “…below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.” Assuming it averages 1.5%, investors are accepting a negative real return virtually in perpetuity. French energy company Total (TOT) issued perpetual […]
The Quiet Investors in Energy
The S&P Energy sector has delivered the worst returns of eleven sectors for four of the past five years. Reflecting investor disdain, energy is now around 6% of the S&P500, down by half in the past decade. Realizing the full potential of the Shale Revolution has demanded a lot of capital – over $1TN by […]
Bond Market Corrects Fed
Last week stocks shuddered as ten year yields dipped below treasury bills, reminding investors that yield curve inversions eerily precede recessions. A Cleveland Fed model using the yield curve gives a 30% probability of a recession within a year, up from 24% in December. Nonetheless, the S&P500 is within 5% of its all-time high, reflecting […]
A Slogan Not Science
JPMorgan’s recent Eye on the Market: Energy Outlook 2019 is the best analysis we’ve seen of the Green New Deal (GND). Author Mike Cembalest, whom I know from when I worked there, as always takes a balanced approach supported by insightful research. Cembalest breaks down the challenge aided by figures and charts to pick the […]
Deja Vu All Over Again for Pipelines?
Years ago, before the Shale Revolution became the phenomenon it is, comparisons were often made between MLPs and REITs. Both offered attractive yields from real assets, and income-seeking investors were drawn to them. As a result, their performance tracked each other pretty closely. Investors focused on the relative value of one versus another generally kept […]