A perverse but totally understandable consequence of the current crisis is that even though it was an excess of debt that got us here, the cost of borrowing is about as low as it could get – at least in the U.S., thanks to the Fed’s confiscatory monetary policy. But in Europe, the cost of borrowing is rapidly reflecting the unfortunate reality that there’s just been altogether too much of it.

On Tuesday, the FT ran an Op-Ed piece by Jim Millstein, “Europe’s largest banks have become too big to save”. I can’t stop thinking about it. He makes the point that Europe’s biggest banks and governments are now so intertwined that one cannot fail without the other. Europe’s banking system is much larger relative to its economies than in the U.S., in part because European corporate debt markets are far less developed. Banks are also loaded with government bonds, an unfortunate consequence of the old BIS capital rules assigning no risk weighting to sovereign debt of any developed country. Bankers loaded up on peripheral European debt because it yielded more than German and French bonds but owning it didn’t require any greater capital. This is really the cause of today’s problems; the common currency simply eliminated the foreign exchange risk, but the capital rules made the build up of risk virtually free and bankers suspended critical judgment.

So what we have today is a symbiotic relationship. Europe’s governments sell bonds to their banks. Those banks, now sagging under the weight of mark to market losses on bonds are having to raise capital at a time of depressed equity prices. This creates the potential for Europe’s governments to need to support their own banks because they already own too much of their government’s debts. It’s a spiral, and the standard austerity prescription from the Germans may be starting to wear thin. The New York Times notes this in an article and wonders whether, as rising bond yields spread to northern Europe (France’s 10 year yields are currently 3.76%), the focus on deficit reduction may lose support. “All this underscores the ongoing nervousness about Europe generally and the banking sector specifically,” says my friend Barry Knapp from Barclays.

It’s not clear where it ends, and Jim Millstein’s piece leads quite logically to just about the worst outcome. So what’s an investor to do?

Well, as dire as things seem, timing equity markets is never easy and although the U.S. will inevitably be dragged down by Europe’s travails there is a world outside the eurozone and many stocks provide attractive return potential. We continue to be short the € in our hedge fund.

Within our Deep Value Equity Strategy we don’t invest in banks (too much leverage for my taste) and natural gas E&P names are no doubt cyclically exposed although it’s hard to see how much lower the price of domestic gas can drop than the $3.40 per MCF it’s at currently. Among the large E&P names we like Devon Energy, which is all domestic, has an attractive exposure to liquids and trades close to the value of its proved reserves. McMoran Exploration (MMR) is a smaller and highly speculative position that will likely resolve itself by the end of the year when it gets results from its Davy Jones Flow Test. MMR had some mildly positive news earlier in the week from their Lafitte Ultra-Deep Exploration Well but this company’s future will likely be driven by Davy Jones. MMR will move up and down with the European debt crisis but its value really has absolutely nothing to do with the price of Italian bonds.

We’re avoiding obvious risks such as financials, and using bottom-up analysis to manage top-down risks.

Disclosure: Author is Long EUO, DVN, MMR

Important Disclosures

The information provided is for informational purposes only and investors should determine for themselves whether a particular service, security or product is suitable for their investment needs. The information contained herein is not complete, may not be current, is subject to change, and is subject to, and qualified in its entirety by, the more complete disclosures, risk factors and other terms that are contained in the disclosure, prospectus, and offering. Certain information herein has been obtained from third party sources and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation is made with respect to the accuracy,  completeness or timeliness of this information. Nothing provided on this site constitutes tax advice. Individuals should seek the advice of their own tax advisor for specific information regarding tax consequences of investments.  Investments in securities entail risk and are not suitable for all investors. This site is not a recommendation nor an offer to sell (or solicitation of an offer to buy) securities in the United States or in any other jurisdiction.

References to indexes and benchmarks are hypothetical illustrations of aggregate returns and do not reflect the performance of any actual investment. Investors cannot invest in an index and do not reflect the deduction of the advisor’s fees or other trading expenses. There can be no assurance that current investments will be profitable. Actual realized returns will depend on, among other factors, the value of assets and market conditions at the time of disposition, any related transaction costs, and the timing of the purchase. Indexes and benchmarks may not directly correlate or only partially relate to portfolios managed by SL Advisors as they have different underlying investments and may use different strategies or have different objectives than portfolios managed by SL Advisors (e.g. The Alerian index is a group MLP securities in the oil and gas industries. Portfolios may not include the same investments that are included in the Alerian Index. The S & P Index does not directly relate to investment strategies managed by SL Advisers.)

This site may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and the future performance of the U.S. market generally. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “should,” “planned,” “estimated,” “potential” and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting a portfolio’s operations that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involves a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements or examples. None of SL Advisors LLC or any of its affiliates or principals nor any other individual or entity assumes any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, subsequent events or any other circumstances. All statements made herein speak only as of the date that they were made. r

Certain hyperlinks or referenced websites on the Site, if any, are for your convenience and forward you to third parties’ websites, which generally are recognized by their top level domain name. Any descriptions of, references to, or links to other products, publications or services does not constitute an endorsement, authorization, sponsorship by or affiliation with SL Advisors LLC with respect to any linked site or its sponsor, unless expressly stated by SL Advisors LLC. Any such information, products or sites have not necessarily been reviewed by SL Advisors LLC and are provided or maintained by third parties over whom SL Advisors LLC exercise no control. SL Advisors LLC expressly disclaim any responsibility for the content, the accuracy of the information, and/or quality of products or services provided by or advertised on these third-party sites.

All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be suitable or profitable for a client’s investment portfolio.

Past performance of the American Energy Independence Index is not indicative of future returns.