The Federal government is pursuing seemingly unlimited spending and is enabling this with unsustainably low interest rates. Investors need strategies to preserve purchasing power and stay ahead of the stealth erosion of their savings.

The Fed’s In No Hurry

In Fed chair Jay Powell’s closing speech from the virtual Jackson Hole symposium he went to great pains to illustrate that currently elevated inflation is transitory. He compared the strong rebound in spending on durable goods to above its pre-Covid trend with services spending, which remains 7% below its pre-Covid trend. He noted the unevenness […]

The Fed’s Balance Sheet Has One Way To Go

This week the Fed is holding their annual Jackson Hole symposium – although it will be virtual again because of the Delta variant. Media coverage has built expectations of a sharp internal debate around tapering. The recent minutes show some in favor of reducing the Fed’s bond buying program this year. Boston Fed president Eric […]

Futures Still Disbelieving The Fed

Memories of the 2013 “Taper Tantrum” loom over today’s FOMC as they engineer an exit that will hopefully be more elegant than our current one from Afghanistan. Both were well overdue, although there is no doubt the military withdrawal was handled disastrously. Can the Fed do better? Unlike the Afghan army, the bond market has […]

US Explores The Limits On Spending

Paul Kennedy’s The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers coined the term “imperial overstretch”. Throughout history, the decline of every great power has coincided with military commitments beyond its means. Such cycles last many decades, and Kennedy’s 1987 book speculated that Japan was the new rising power about to overtake America. That call was […]