By Henry Hoffman, Partner, SL Advisors

In the realm of global energy, 2024 was heralded as a landmark year for the expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, particularly for America. Optimism was buoyed by the prior year’s achievements, wherein American enterprises reached Final Investment Decision (FID) on the equivalent of 5 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (BCF/D). That’s one third of the amount of gas Europe was importing from Russia before the invasion of Ukraine! 

However, a regulatory interlude, specifically the temporary suspension of non-Free Trade Agreement (FTA) export licenses coupled with more stringent criteria for extending project in-service dates, has precipitated a recalibration of expectations. This pause has advantaged international competitors, notably with Qatar announcing a 16-MMt/y expansion. Consequently, the landscape for 2024’s FIDs is now markedly altered, favoring projects beyond American shores. 

According to the leading LNG experts at Poten & Partners, only a few domestic endeavors are still poised for progress. These include NextDecade’s (Symbol: NEXT) Rio Grande LNG Train 4, a notable candidate for a 2024 FID. Poten notes they have their DOE approvals in hand and Middle East buyers (Reuters has previously reported this is ADNOC) are in advanced discussions for offtake of 2-3 Million Tonnes per Annum (MTPA), enough to commercialize the project with TotalEnergies exercising its option for 1.5MTPA. NextDecade is targeting FID on T4 by the end of 3Q 2024.  

Nonetheless, the overarching sentiment within the industry is one of restraint, as projects that once seemed imminent now grapple with uncertain timelines. This unforeseen stasis extends beyond the U.S., affecting Mexican projects reliant on American natural gas, thereby creating a ripple effect that benefits international ventures in the UAE, Mozambique, and Papua New Guinea. 

In the intricate tapestry of global energy dynamics, the recent recalibration of the United States’ regulatory stance on non-FTA LNG export licenses has precipitated a notable shift. Asian buyers, initially on the cusp of cementing long-term procurement deals with U.S. LNG developers in the first quarter of 2024, find themselves at a crossroads, compelled to reconsider their supply strategies in light of these regulatory adjustments.  

.avia-image-container.av-2husk3-6fce623dafaa4b042b5f81c6bb4fed71 img.avia_image{ box-shadow:none; } .avia-image-container.av-2husk3-6fce623dafaa4b042b5f81c6bb4fed71 .av-image-caption-overlay-center{ color:#ffffff; }

This pivot is not merely a transient phase but a reflection of a deeper reevaluation of supply chains amidst evolving policy landscapes. Poten highlights that Energy Transfer’s (Symbol: ET) Lake Charles LNG project epitomizes the challenges and resilience within this sector. The project has faced renegotiation barriers with potential buyers due to the uncertainty surrounding its non-FTA permit extension, essential for meeting its proposed in-service deadline of December 2025.  

This situation is further exacerbated by the U.S. Department of Energy’s stringent criteria for permit extensions, adding layers of complexity to an already intricate negotiation landscape. As a result, Energy Transfer’s attempts to amend pricing structures with buyers have encountered significant headwinds, underscoring the delicate balance between regulatory compliance and market competitiveness.  

Poten notes that Japan’s Kyushu Electric has delayed converting its Heads Of Agreement (HOA) with Energy Transfer into a binding Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) as one example of the effects of this disastrous policy. Conversely, Tellurian’s (Symbol: TELL) plagued Driftwood project may have received a lifeline, enabling it to capitalize on the current regulatory pause that has beleaguered competitors like Energy Transfer. 

The implications of this regulatory hiatus extend beyond mere project delays. It underscores a burgeoning competition for market share in the LNG sector, with other nations benefiting from America’s masochist behavior. This political maneuver disadvantages our allies in Europe and Japan while aiding rivals in the Middle East and Russia, manifesting significant and concrete impacts.  

Fortunately, in contrast to the partisan DOE, the American spirit lives on in domestic LNG developers, who, despite the current impasse, continue to forge ahead with negotiations and project planning. 

The Magnificent Seven may be shrinking to the Fab Four as the number of AI-linked market leaders diminishes. Tesla and Apple are down on the year while Alphabet lagged the S&P500. That leaves Nvidia, Meta, Amazon and Facebook leading. As with the dotcom bubble 25 years ago, if you can link your business to the new craze your stock will soar. 

Natural gas driller EOG Resources was relying on “machine-learning” at least seven years ago to optimize their E&P operations. Devon Energy uses AI to help achieve “sustainable growth.”  

Natural gas has a stronger link to AI than the examples above. Given the substantial increase in electricity needed to power new data centers, the efficiencies promised by the AI revolution won’t be achievable without it. Executives are becoming increasingly bullish in their outlook. “It will not be done without gas,” says Toby Rice, CEO of EQT America’s biggest producer of natural gas. Growth in data centers has led to sharp upward revisions in forecast electricity demand, now 3-4% pa versus just 1% a year ago (see AI Boosts US Energy). Microsoft is opening a new data center somewhere in the world on average every three days.  

US data centers are forecast to consume a tenth of US electricity by 2035, up from an expected 4.5% next year.   

“Intermittent renewables is not going to cut it.” warns Enbridge EVP Colin Gruending. 21st century technology relying on weather-dependent seems incongruous.  

Using more electricity will limit the market share gains of renewables. The slow pace at which we’re adding high voltage transmission lines is already impeding the hook-up of new solar and wind farms (see Renewables Confront NIMBYs).  

Many IT companies have made their own carbon commitments, and some worry that they’ll insist on zero-carbon energy. This sounds prosaic for revolutionaries, and it’s likely they’ll find creative ways to meet those obligations. Natural gas generated power with carbon capture technology is one possible solution. Or companies could simply buy carbon credits, a demand Occidental Petroleum is preparing to meet (see Carbon Capture Gaining Traction).  

US natural gas remains very cheap. The Henry Hub benchmark trades at under $2 per Million BTUs. In west Texas, gas is often produced along with oil. The shortage of infrastructure to move the gas has pushed prices negative at the Waha hub, meaning buyers get paid to take it.   

The US was the world’s biggest exporter of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) last year, averaging 11.9 Billion Cubic Feet per Day. We eclipsed Australia and Qatar who have been vying for top slot in recent years. The world wants more of what we have in abundance. LNG exports will double over the next four years. The Biden administration’s recent pause on new LNG permits threatens to halt further growth, harming efforts to reduce CO2 emissions elsewhere (see LNG Pause Will Boost Asian Coal Consumption).  

Energy executives have roundly criticized the pause. Our aging president is desperate to excite young progressives about four more years. It’s a bad policy likely to be rescinded after the election regardless of the victor. Surging power demand from data centers may lift domestic natural gas prices without additional LNG exports.  

.avia-image-container.av-tdmwde-a6f63002de64039f2a588762edb0eb3a img.avia_image{ box-shadow:none; } .avia-image-container.av-tdmwde-a6f63002de64039f2a588762edb0eb3a .av-image-caption-overlay-center{ color:#ffffff; }

In other news there’s an absorbing interview between BBC journalist Stephen Sackur and Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali as this South American country prepares to exploit its offshore oil reserves. The Stabroek Block is a prolific region, with Exxon announcing a new discovery earlier this year (Bluefin).  

The BBC’s Sackur tried to put President Ali on the defensive over Guyana’s plans to export more fossil fuels, counter to the UN’s objective to eventually limit their use. The optics of a wealthy journalist from a rich western nation berating the leader of a poor country whose citizens aspire to higher living standards was powerful. In one interview it encapsulated the entire climate change conundrum. OECD countries have generated most of the world’s excess CO2 and want to reduce them. This will disproportionately benefit poorer countries like Guyana who are less able to afford climate change mitigation.  

And yet the president of Guyana (GDP per capita $25K) tells a reporter from the UK (GDP per capita $52K) that they’ve preserved a rainforest the size of England and Scotland combined which acts as a carbon sink. Where is the money from rich countries to pay for that, asks President Ali.  

Guyana wants to use its oil reserves to create wealth and reach western living standards. This will be an enduring problem unless OECD countries provide substantial financial incentives to induce the actions they’d like to see. 

The interview clip is the global climate conundrum.  

Indonesia and Malaysia are apparently among the few places on earth with geology suited to hold CO2. This has drawn the interest of Exxon Mobil among others, who recently secured “exclusive rights to CO2 storage” according to CEO Darren Woods. Meeting the “Zero by 50” goal requires burying 1 billion tons of CO2 annually by 2030, 25X today’s capacity.  

Schlumberger is investing as much as $500MM to buy Norway’s Aker Carbon Capture Holding. And Occidental is building the world’s biggest carbon capture facility in Texas.  

These are all examples of how the energy sector is positioning to continue providing reliable energy while also helping mitigate CO2 emissions.  

Policymakers have an ambiguous posture towards energy companies. They like to blame them for producing fossil fuels but want them to continue so that prices on 80% of the world’s energy don’t shoot up. There’s little support nor technical capability to stop using what moves the world’s economy.  

This shows up in myriad ways. A UBS banker recently complained about having to align financing decisions with a world warming by 1.5 degrees above 1850 levels. We’re already at 1.1 degrees, so almost there. Judson Berkey, group head of engagement and regulatory strategy, noted that more realistically we’re “hurtling towards a 2.8 degree warming.”  

“Banks are living and lending on planet earth, not planet NGFS,” added Berkey, referring to the Network for Greening the Financial System.  

If companies aren’t running their businesses consistent with Zero by 50, how is a bank supposed to make lending decisions under this more onerous constraint? 

JPMorgan Asset Management and several other big firms withdrew from Climate Action 100+ because they concluded their interests weren’t properly aligned. Political leaders haven’t been effective in persuading voters to accept higher energy prices to speed the transition.  

So the world follows ambiguity – not confronting China as it ramps up coal consumption; ignoring the boost to emissions to increase their living standards; pressing banks to pretend there’s no demand for traditional energy financing. Coal finance is among the most controversial areas for banks, because the world is supposed to be phasing out its use albeit with varying degrees of commitment.  

.avia-image-container.av-20peazf-a48b6e61cd482dacfe9acee7a9fa77b0 img.avia_image{ box-shadow:none; } .avia-image-container.av-20peazf-a48b6e61cd482dacfe9acee7a9fa77b0 .av-image-caption-overlay-center{ color:#ffffff; }

The US Energy Information Administration in last year’s International Energy Outlook shows 2050 coal demand flat in their Reference Case and little changed in their six other scenarios. 

By contrast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently published Accelerating Just Transitions for the Coal Sector. As is common nowadays, the IEA’s forecasts are aspirational and routinely show fossil fuel consumption peaking at the time of publication. There’s no IEA scenario in which coal demand rises, even though last year saw record consumption. 

.avia-image-container.av-1kmiji3-738d063bdfb7e83c88cdfeffbe63b4cd img.avia_image{ box-shadow:none; } .avia-image-container.av-1kmiji3-738d063bdfb7e83c88cdfeffbe63b4cd .av-image-caption-overlay-center{ color:#ffffff; }

Markets are looking through this. Midstream energy infrastructure, as defined by the American Energy Independence Index continued to outperform utilities. That’s because NextEra and their peers are responsible for delivering the energy transition. On one side sits the unappealing economics of renewables which push up power prices. This is in part because increased solar and wind use raises the amount of redundant capacity needed to back up weather-dependent electricity.  

.avia-image-container.av-zoamd7-0b68337566a2a448978c9008c0748ac2 img.avia_image{ box-shadow:none; } .avia-image-container.av-zoamd7-0b68337566a2a448978c9008c0748ac2 .av-image-caption-overlay-center{ color:#ffffff; }

On the other side sit political and regulatory pressure to decarbonize the grid.  

Clean energy is also a huge investment disappointment. The sector’s operating margins are often unattractive and sometimes negative.  

According to Wells Fargo, Ohm Analytics revised down their forecast of residential solar installations to –19% versus last year. Wells Fargo is at –25%. One reason is that installers are going bankrupt.  

Ohm retains a positive longer-term outlook on residential solar for two reasons that are heavy in irony: (1) rising utility bills, and (2) increasing grid instability. Data center build-out is a recently appreciated area of demand growth following decades of no growth in electricity consumption.  

Higher prices and reduced peak demand buffers are a consequence of greater reliance on renewables. As power grids operate with diminished excess capacity the risk of a power outage rises. This will play out over the next several years.  

In brief, Ohm is forecasting increasing residential spending on solar panels because increased utility spending on solar panels is raising prices and reducing the flexibility of the grid. If too many households become self-sufficient in electricity generation and unplug from the public system, the substantial fixed costs of maintaining and building distribution infrastructure will get spread across a declining set of customers.  

That’s a problem for another day.  

The energy transition is an engrossing story, but we believe the best returns will continue to come from traditional energy and midstream infrastructure which continues to allocate capital based on IRR with limited impact from ESG-type influences.  

.avia-image-container.av-jkc9zv-60cf05aa4257cb55c1de134534687c68 img.avia_image{ box-shadow:none; } .avia-image-container.av-jkc9zv-60cf05aa4257cb55c1de134534687c68 .av-image-caption-overlay-center{ color:#ffffff; }

Christmas is a time of traditions, which in turn create nostalgia. Like endorphins, this is a free and harmless narcotic.  

Putting up the external Christmas lights, which we typically do right after Thanksgiving, usefully expends a few calories and kicks off that warm Yuletide feeling. Hunting through dusty boxes in the chilly attic for last year’s lights inevitably evokes Clark Griswold. It reminds me not to get locked up there. 

Draping colored lights over the bushes near our front door easily adds Christmas cheer. 

I’m especially pleased by the wreath, which hangs fifteen feet up above the front door over a window. Its positioning may not look especially challenging, but my first attempt required considerable planning. The stone façade ruled out hammering a nail into the wall. I spotted a hook twenty five feet up near the roof that originally supported a window awning nearly a century ago. I concluded the wreath needed to hang from there. 

I devised specialized equipment, including a long pole repurposed from changing light bulbs too high to reach. I had to ascend most of the way up a twelve foot ladder, then use the pole to snag a looped piece of wire onto the hook. 

Still poised unsteadily on the ladder, I then threaded the wire through the wreath. It was finally secured by reaching out to it through an upstairs window. I have been performing this feat annually ever since. My younger daughter holds the ladder and offers moral support, so between us we project a visible expression of Christmas with no other assistance.  

.avia-image-container.av-1403r1c-e507a9dbae4598a8ed5f0057f6805c8c img.avia_image{ box-shadow:none; } .avia-image-container.av-1403r1c-e507a9dbae4598a8ed5f0057f6805c8c .av-image-caption-overlay-center{ color:#ffffff; }

Over the years I have drawn some pride from solving this installation problem. Most of my accomplishments at home maintenance involve writing a check to someone more skilled than me at resolving the issue at hand. This annual demonstration of practical competence provides modest satisfaction.  

I don’t just keep the house running by changing lightbulbs.  

We live in a neighborhood where it’s becoming increasingly common to have the Christmas lights hung professionally. Landscaping contractors are finding it a useful sideline during the offseason. Snow removal, which some of them also provide, has been unprofitable in New Jersey for the past couple of years. Blame global warming.  

.avia-image-container.av-s5gixs-23088592ff9e0019dc8a6a940439c587 img.avia_image{ box-shadow:none; } .avia-image-container.av-s5gixs-23088592ff9e0019dc8a6a940439c587 .av-image-caption-overlay-center{ color:#ffffff; }

A crew of six armed with long ladders and a staple gun can quickly transform a suburban home into a light extravaganza. Illuminations are effortlessly strung at heights I’d rather not scale. The entire house glows Christmas cheer.  

I am a big fan of progress, but I find this trend towards commercial light installations a disappointment. 

I never considered our lights to be in a competition. We’re doing our bit to show ’tis the season to be jolly, to spread comfort and joy. But I must confess to a slight feeling of inadequacy as I drive back home past displays that wouldn’t look out of place adorning a hotel or in the Magic Kingdom. That I invested greater personal effort seems rather foolish when considering the results. The others put in less work. And less love. They just wrote a check.  

.avia-image-container.av-umtou8-a1acecde3d5b4e79601996208964460f img.avia_image{ box-shadow:none; } .avia-image-container.av-umtou8-a1acecde3d5b4e79601996208964460f .av-image-caption-overlay-center{ color:#ffffff; }

Nonetheless, I am not about to join the crowd and outsource the Christmas lights. Next year I’ll just have to create a more extensive display without climbing on the roof. The neighboring houses offer plenty of inspiration.  

The result will still be less than others nearby. But it’ll be my own work, and infinitely more satisfying as a result. 

I hope this anecdote made you smile and boosted your festive spirit. Normal market commentary will resume on Wednesday. 

Merry Christmas or, if it’s more appropriate, Happy Holidays.  

Last week the Midstream Energy Infrastructure Conference (MEIC) held its annual event in Palm Beach, FL. SL Advisors partner Henry Hoffman was there and today’s blog post recounts highlights reported by Henry.  

Oneok’s (OKE) proposed acquisition of Magellan Midstream (MMP) was a common topic, especially the unwelcome recapture of deferred taxes facing MMP. When a c-corp, in this case OKE, buys a partnership (MMP), the limited partners in the target get a bad tax outcome. 

For this reason, Crestwood, LP CEO Bob Phillips told us they’d never sell to a c-corp buyer. Since he’s never sold a unit of CEQP, his recapture of deferred taxes would presumably be significant. Williams CEO Alan Armstrong recalled paying a hefty tax bill on his own holdings of Williams Partners, LP when it was acquired by the parent company in 2018. There are few painless exits from an MLP investment. 

One sell-side analyst reported that MMP had decided to sell because they didn’t see an obvious path to growth short of significant capex, and believed their company was undervalued. Overall companies expressed predictable interest in making bolt-on acquisitions but there was little indication of any other large deals in the works.  

Gabe Moreen of Mizuho Securities, Adam Breit, from Truist and Chase Mulvehill from Bank of America generally agreed that strong balance sheets would allow further industry consolidation but were skeptical about any other large deals like OKE-MMP.  

 Natural gas takeaway infrastructure and permitting reform were two themes that recurred in discussions. Lunch speaker Dan Reicher, former Assistant Secretary for Energy (1997-2001), brought attention to the issue of consistent underinvestment in public infrastructure, particularly in areas that don’t provide immediate private returns. He underlined the criticality of bipartisan dialogue and collaboration in addressing the complex challenges of the energy sector.  

A panel discussion covered potential opportunities for private equity deals, the escalating need for gas takeaway capacity, and the evolution of energy project permitting in the light of increasing social justice focus. J.P. Morgan’s financing panel predicted a challenging environment for upstream financing but expressed optimism for the LNG debt sector noting that financing has continued unabated. 

Another lunch speaker, Dr. Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects, highlighted the robust Asian demand for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and the global increase in Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) demand. She noted the persistent underinvestment in the supply of both LNG and NGLs. 

Highlights from interactions with individual companies are below: 

.avia-image-container.av-kbyref-6c24f869127adbc3850b979807867067 img.avia_image{ box-shadow:none; } .avia-image-container.av-kbyref-6c24f869127adbc3850b979807867067 .av-image-caption-overlay-center{ color:#ffffff; }

In a fireside chat, Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) Co-CEO, Randy Fowler, shared his perspectives on acquisitions. Fowler emphasized the importance of quality in three main areas: contracts; the producers underpinning those contracts; and the quality of systems in which these contracts operate. Specifically, he cited the Navitas acquisition as an example.  Fowler also reflected on the company’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. He noted that most staff returned to office work within 2-3 weeks, with the exception of immunocompromised individuals. He made it clear that remote work was not an option for their field workers and office workers should share the same ethos.   

In a separate panel discussion on the topic of ESG, Fowler pointed out that with 30% of the world’s population living in energy poverty, EPD’s export of propane is making a tangible difference in people’s lives. He noted that EPD exports more propane than Saudi Arabia, a statistic that underscores the scale of their operations. He highlighted the fact that more people die annually from unsafe cooking practices than did from COVID-19 during the peak of the pandemic, emphasizing the vital role of liquefied petroleum gas in addressing this issue. He described LPGs from shale as a ‘true miracle.’  

EPD also reiterated their commitment to the Master Limited Partnership structure. 

Energy Transfer’s (ET) CFO, Dylan Bramhall, provided an update on the regulatory challenges the company is facing. He expressed shock at the Department of Energy’s denial of a permit extension for the Lake Charles LNG project. ET is appealing the decision, the results of which are expected within a month. Bramhall cautioned that this development may signal a shift towards more regulatory activism, potentially introducing a new layer of uncertainty and complexity in securing project financing.  

Bramhall revealed plans to share financing responsibilities for Lake Charles with the individual equity partners rather than at the project level, with ET retaining a long-term 25% stake in the project. He highlighted the financial flexibility of the company and pointed out potential upstream synergies of Lake Charles. Bramhall also shared an ambition for more mergers and acquisitions, ideally financed through cash reserves expected to accumulate after a predicted upgrade to their credit rating later this year. 

Jesse Arenivas, CEO of Enlink, concentrated our group session on the company’s Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) initiatives. He projected that this business would represent 25% of the company’s EBITDA by 2030. Arenivas conceded that weather conditions had negatively impacted the company’s Q1 performance but remained optimistic about Enlink’s future prospects. He suggested that the company’s current market undervaluation makes acquisitions unattractive, effectively eliminating any M&A concerns. 

Breck Bash with CapturePoint, a Texas energy distribution company, also reported seeing huge opportunities in CCS especially after the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act which includes substantial tax credits. 

Alan Armstrong, CEO of Williams Companies, stressed that strong demand for the company’s services is challenging their capacity to deliver. With a long list of promising organic projects in the pipeline, Armstrong suggested that the company is not presently interested in pursuing M&A strategies. He drew attention to the Supreme Court hearing on the Chevron Deference case, indicating that its outcome could have considerable implications for the permitting process in the energy sector.  

Nearly 40 years ago, in Chevron v. Natural Resources Defense Council, the US Supreme Court ruled that courts should defer to a federal agency’s interpretation of an ambiguous statute as long as that interpretation is reasonable. The Supreme Court has agreed to reconsider that ruling.  

In a highly engaging conversation, Targa’s CEO, Matthew Meloy detailed his strategic approach to capital allocation. He highlighted his willingness to buy back his stock at a 7X EV/EBITDA multiple while identifying low-risk investment opportunities in contracted projects at a 4X multiple. Meloy offered insights into the potential sale of non-core assets in South Texas and the Badlands, which require minimal capex and yield stable cash flows. Meloy’s ten-year NPV approach to Targa and its assets displayed a keen sense of value. While he currently sees numerous opportunities, he acknowledged a potential surplus of free cash flow versus investment opportunities in the next 3-5 years. Consequently, Meloy expects a substantial increase in dividend payments in the future, although not near-term. 

Lastly, Tellurian is optimistic about their prospects for securing equity partners by the end of July for their LNG project. They estimated that bank debt would be finalized within two months following the equity financing deal. Despite skepticism in the market, they argued that successfully securing equity financing would significantly boost their stock value. We have been critics of Tellurian, because of CEO Souki’s excessive compensation and a business model that until recently retained natural gas price risk in their LNG contracts which has made achieving financing more challenging.  

Overall attendance at the 2023 MEIC was reported as similar to last year. One analyst was surprised it wasn’t greater given the frequent positive conversations he’s having with investors. 

We found that it confirmed our bullish outlook, based on strong balance sheets, continuing capital discipline and continued global demand growth for US gas, NGLs and crude oil.  

We have three funds that seek to profit from this environment:

Energy Mutual Fund

Energy ETF

Inflation Fund

Every investor is aware that the market’s been volatile recently. The VIX is high but converting it into typical daily moves isn’t intuitive. Several readers like the chart below, which shows what % of the last 100 trading days have seen the market move by more than 1% in either direction. It’s currently 55, so more than half of the past 100 trading days have seen such a move.

The prevalence of this “more likely than not to move 1%” metric is unusual; over the past quarter century such a regime has prevailed only 8.5% of the time. We’re approaching the volatility that Covid caused, but still short of the 2008-09 financial crisis. This metric is indifferent to direction, but it peaks during bear markets because volatility induces selling.  

.avia-image-container.av-zq2uvv-579dcbd1eef87d4b3d9684ea246c8925 img.avia_image{ box-shadow:none; } .avia-image-container.av-zq2uvv-579dcbd1eef87d4b3d9684ea246c8925 .av-image-caption-overlay-center{ color:#ffffff; }

2% daily moves are occurring 24% of the time. 100 day periods like that have occurred only 7% of the time since 1996. 

.avia-image-container.av-l1micb-7611d97ca91a868f2fe461e44825b658 img.avia_image{ box-shadow:none; } .avia-image-container.av-l1micb-7611d97ca91a868f2fe461e44825b658 .av-image-caption-overlay-center{ color:#ffffff; }

There have been few places to hide. The 17.3% fall in the S&P500 has been accompanied by a –10.9% YTD return on the Barclays Agg fixed income benchmark. The 60/40 portfolio is down 14.8%.  

The drop in markets this month has been especially hard on the energy sector, although the American Energy Independence Index is still +11% YTD. Increased odds of a recession have hurt cyclical stocks, and midstream energy infrastructure has been dragged down in the process. The Fed is entering a tricky stage – having made one policy mistake in being too slow to confront inflation, they’re trying to fix it without committing a second error. Their critics have momentum, because so far they’ve been right. Former NY Fed chief Bill Dudley warned that The US Economy Is Headed for a Hard Landing. 

In Senate testimony Fed chair Jay Powell conceded that a recession was possible and avoiding one depended on factors outside the Fed’s control. Cynics may regard this as preparing the next set of excuses. It’s easy to see events unfolding such that the Fed loses the few friends it has. Senator Elizabeth Warren offered a preview of what may become criticism not limited to the left: “You know what’s worse than high inflation and low unemployment? It’s high inflation and a recession with millions of people out of work,”   

The 60% of CEOs that expect a recession within eighteen months assume that the Fed will overdo tightening.  

Whether the consensus turns out to be right or not, the fundamentals for the energy sector keep improving. Unsurprisingly, Russian natural gas supplies to Germany through Nord Stream 1 are down sharply. It was never plausible that Russia would co-operatively keep the gas flowing right up until Germany no longer needed it. Rationing of natural gas supplies is looming as German citizens pay the price for decades of poorly advised energy policy.  

A string of US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) deals were announced last week. Cheniere decided to move ahead with an expansion of their Corpus Christi LNG export facility. Chevron signed purchase agreements with Cheniere and Venture Global to buy 2 million tonnes a year of LNG from each of them. 

Germany is considering expropriating part of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline that Russia’s Gazprom built but has never been used. That part of Nord Stream 2 that is on German territory might be cut off from the rest of it and repurposed to facillirate LNG imports.

Japan announced that they will stop offering low-interest loans to developing countries to build new coal-burning power plants. According to Bloomberg, Japan accounted for more than half of the $6.6 billion of coal support from G-7 countries in 2019. No meaningful progress on emissions reduction is likely without persuading emerging economies to reduce coal consumption. Cutting off cheap financing is at least consistent with that goal. It will make natural gas power plants more attractive. 

Berkshire Hathaway added to its stake in Occidental Petroleum, taking advantage of recent weakness. Berkshire now owns 16.3% of the company.  

Research from Wells Fargo estimates that approximately 55% of midstream EBITDA has built-in inflation escalators. Liquids pipelines are often regulated by FERC, which permits tariff increases based on the PPI (currently running at 11%). Among the companies best positioned to benefit from this are are MPLX, Oneok and Magellan Midstream. Wells Fargo expects this inflation protection will boost midstream sector EBITDA by around 5.3% this year, a permanent step-up in EBITDA since negative PPI is implausible.  

This is why pipelines offer useful protection against higher inflation. If the Fed beats the consensus and is successful in avoiding a recession, it’ll probably be because economic weakness induces a premature declaration that inflation is vanquished. Real assets will offer valuable upside in such a scenario.  

We have three funds that seek to profit from this environment:

Energy Mutual Fund

Energy ETF

Inflation Fund

Please see important Legal Disclosures.

Watch this nine-minute video to learn:

Why You Should Worry About Inflation

Last week was hailed as a big victory for climate activists. In a 1-2-3 punch on Wednesday, a Dutch court ordered Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) to further reduce emissions from its products; Exxon Mobil (XOM) shareholders elected two new directors proposed by an activist hedge fund against management’s recommendation; Chevron (CVX) shareholders approved a proposal to reduce emissions caused by its customers. 

All three companies will become less invested in future oil and gas production than they were previously. For those who regard energy companies as the cause of global warming, rather than the billions of individuals who buy their products, Wednesday’s three events were a watershed. 

Vanguard, Blackrock and State Street are XOM’s three biggest shareholders and also members of the Net Zero Managers Initiative which is committed to “net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or sooner.” It’s often believed that you can do well by doing good, and a popular narrative is that ESG funds are delivering good returns because ESG-oriented companies deliver better operating performance.  

The biggest ESG fund (ESGU), run by Blackrock, is imperceptibly different from the S&P500 (see Pipelines Are ESG). XOM and CVX are both holdings in ESGU. Blackrock’s ESG definition is flexible, like most proponents. Lockheed Martin is a perennial member of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index, so pretty much every company claims ESG-ness. Big natural gas pipeline corporations really are ESG, since they are helping displace coal for power generation in the U.S.  

Engine No 1, the activist shareholder in XOM, argued that the company was risking its very existence by continuing to provide the world with oil and gas. This is a non-ESG view based on an assessment of the company’s business prospects, but conveniently aligned with the climate change goals of its three biggest shareholders. XOM will presumably now chart a course that directs more investment to renewables.  

CEO Darren Woods clearly wants to keep his job – he has welcomed the new board members, even though in the past he’s questioned XOM’s strategic advantage in pursuing renewables. The business of fossil fuel extraction, processing and distribution (geology, refining, petrochemicals, retail gasoline) would seem to offer few synergies with building solar farms and windmills. Woods has in the past noted that they have little more than money to offer to such efforts.  

Perversely, all three developments from last week make the rest of the energy business more attractive. Future supply will grow less than it would have, while demand will continue to be led higher by emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere. Oil and gas prices will likely drift higher. All the focus of climate extremists is on supply, not demand. Consumers are far less susceptible to changing their behavior in support of reduced emissions. 

.avia-image-container.av-wfyesf-719541eed96823c0f45c79b0741dd97f img.avia_image{ box-shadow:none; } .avia-image-container.av-wfyesf-719541eed96823c0f45c79b0741dd97f .av-image-caption-overlay-center{ color:#ffffff; }

Based on how all three stocks reacted, these developments were not enthusiastically received. Shifting investments away from what these companies know to new areas with very different economics isn’t a compelling way to drive higher returns. The real winners are likely to be privately-held oil and gas producers, and OPEC nations who will welcome the increased market share at higher prices that last week promises.  

XOM, CVX and RDS all finished down for the week, lagging crude oil which is usually a reliable barometer of energy sector sentiment. They were also outperformed by North American pipelines, as represented by the American Energy Independence Index (AEITR).  

In the same week Tellurian (TELL) announced a ten-year agreement to sell liquified natural gas to Gunvor, a commodities firm. It shows that demand for natural gas remains strong. Privately-held Gunvor is relatively immune to climate extremists and must regard the strategy shifts forced on the three companies as vindicating their deal. But they and TELL can also claim to be constructively lowering CO2 emissions – without the natural gas they’ll be providing to customers in Asia, it’s likely more coal would be burned to meet the region’s growing demand for electricity. Switching from coal to natural gas is the most effective way for the world to reduce emissions, as America has demonstrated for the past decade.  

As shareholder-activists and litigants force uncommercial strategies on energy companies, it is creating profitable investment opportunities elsewhere in the energy sector. If supply is constrained too far, much higher prices will cause demand destruction and improve the relative pricing of renewables. But it looks increasingly likely we are heading into a Goldilocks period – growth capex sufficiently reduced to boost free cash flow and cause higher prices, but still enough supply to stop prices from spiking ruinously. The key will be to invest where activists don’t, so as to profit from their efforts. 

We are invested in TELL and all the components of the American Energy Independence Index via the ETF that seeks to track its performance.

ESG is in the eye of the beholder. There are multiple lists of stocks that score well on Environmental, Social and Governance metrics. My favorite is Lockheed Martin (LMT), a perennial member of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. If building weapons to blow up people and property can be done in a sustainable way, then ESG is a generous mistress (see Pipeline Buybacks and ESG Flexibility).

There are currently 138 ESG ETFs traded on U.S. markets, with almost $90BN in AUM. The most important thing about ESG investing is that it’s growing faster than the market. A cynic might regard the rush by CEOs to demonstrate ESG-ness as driven by asset flows rather than altruism. ESG-driven investors can note with satisfaction the market-beating performance of such funds. The largest ESG ETF is the iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA ETF (ESGU), with $15BN in AUM.

The pipeline sector offers 7% yields, growing free cash flow and strong recent performance. It has been out of favor more often than not in recent years, but Joe Biden’s arrival at the White House has ushered in rising energy prices with less growth spending (see Is Biden Bullish For Pipelines?). Investors are warming to policies that encourage parsimonious funding of new projects, something that eluded them during Donald Trump’s presidency.

Some may avoid pipelines because of historic volatility, although operating performance last year was scarcely affected by Covid. The energy transition deters others, although a pragmatic desire not to wreck the economy means natural gas retains its bright future as part of the solution to reducing emissions. A third cohort thinks fossil fuel companies are bad, even though it’s how the world has reached today’s living standards. There’s a belief that the energy sector has much to apologize for.

.avia-image-container.av-umgq5p-c016e90bbeeea2b45612e2773b65e1b4 img.avia_image{ box-shadow:none; } .avia-image-container.av-umgq5p-c016e90bbeeea2b45612e2773b65e1b4 .av-image-caption-overlay-center{ color:#ffffff; }

It may surprise this last group to learn that ESGU has a 2.5% weighting to energy, virtually indistinguishable from the S&P500’s 2.6%. ESGU holds Kinder Morgan (KMI), Cheniere (LNG), Oneok (OKE), Targa Resources (TRGP) and Williams Companies (WMB), all components of the American Energy Independence Index. Relative to the S&P500 it has modest overweights in Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM). It also overweights Nextera Energy (NEE), one of the largest producers of electricity from natural gas.

ESGU has some interesting underweights, including Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) both companies with plenty to say about their ESG credentials. Clearly ESG-ness isn’t a binary issue, or Facebook’s dual share class would knock them out on the Governance scale. Instead, it trims them to 1.81% in ESGU versus 2.06% in the S&P500. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) is ESGU’s biggest underweight, at 0.84% versus 1.47%. Those omitted from ESGU are an eclectic bunch, including Tyson Foods (TSN) and Boston Scientific (BSX). The complete absence of airlines in ESGU fueled some of its outperformance. Covid crushed the sector rather than any ESG shortcomings.

These differences are trivial, which means ESGU looks a lot like the S&P500 and tracks it closely. For the past couple of years, their daily returns are 0.99 correlated, and ESGU has outperformed by 2.1% p.a. It’s unlikely that ESG-run companies offer better long-term performance than the market. More likely is that investors just want to own them a little more, which is boosting their stock returns.

Index providers continue to compete to be the market standard for ESG-ness. Current standards vary. Since probably every member of the S&P500 has ESG slides in its investor presentation, it’s hard to avoid virtue-claiming companies.

If ESG doesn’t impact operating results, then eventually ESG funds will underperform the market because buyers will have overpaid. But for now, metrics from the past two years tempt the virtue-signaling investor – good odds of roughly tracking the market, some chance to beat it and the claim to morally higher ground than one’s peers.

The substantial overlap between ESGU and the S&P500 simplifies the choice facing an ESG-motivated investor. ESGU’s portfolio signifies approval of almost the entire S&P500. There’s no discernible difference in virtue between an investor in ESGU or the S&P500 itself. What ESGU does offer is a small bet on continued flows into ESG funds.

ESGU’s energy holdings represent an endorsement. An investor hesitating to take advantage of the high yields and growing free cash flow of pipelines because of a misplaced concern that her liberal friends may frown can point to ESGU for absolution.

Energy, and pipeline companies specifically, sit at market weight or better in many of the biggest ESG funds. They should – coal to natural gas switching in the U.S. has done more than renewables to lower emissions over the past decade. U.S. exports of liquified natural gas offer other countries the opportunity to emulate our success. Pipelines are ESG.

We are invested in all the components of the American Energy Independence Index via the ETF that seeks to track its performance.