Is Crude At A Tipping Point?
It has struck us for some time that crude prices continue to reflect an overly optimistic view about when normal shipping will resume in the Strait of Hormuz. There is no acceptable military solution available to the US. The Iranian threat will stop when Iran so decides. Nonetheless, every positive social media utterance from President Trump draws algorithmic selling of crude oil futures and related energy stocks.
In late May Bernstein hosted executives from both Exxon Mobil and Chevron at their 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference. Energy insiders have long been warning about the price risks caused by depleting oil inventories. Nonetheless, the transcript was startling.
XOM SVP Neil Chapman said, “We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels…going to hit really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. But once you get to that point, then you’ll see prices shoot up.” Chapman thinks Brent crude could soon reach $150-160.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned that, “…the buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down and the ability of the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started.” He added, “,,,there’s more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”
Neil Chapman felt that the loss of Persian Gulf supply has been partly offset by large volumes of sanctioned crude from Venezuela and Russia that was already in ships and became available to buyers. Much of that has now gone. China also stopped building their substantial supplies of stored crude.
Mike Wirth expects that even after shipments return to normal through the Strait of Hormuz, rebuilding strategic stocks that have been drawn down will increase demand, boosting prices.
Trafigura also warned that inventories were dangerously low when reporting a doubling in quarterly profits on Thursday.
When the Strait opens up, you could see a rush to rebuild stocks that would push prices higher. Many operators might worry that any peace deal is fragile and rush to take advantage of supplies while they can. There’s little point in building inventories when supply is constrained. It would be ironic and not a little frustrating to the White House if they announced a deal to re-open the Strait and oil prices rose. It seems to us a plausible result.
Trading is driven by algorithms that sweep news stories faster and more efficiently than any human. When I was trading interest rate futures in the 80s and 90s, occasionally a story would break that allowed a profitable trade for those with fast enough reactions. That time long ago passed.
I wonder if the transcript from a sell-side conference doesn’t receive the same type of AI analysis as the regular posts from our president. Executives at America’s two biggest energy companies both see a plausible risk for oil prices to jump 50% in a month or two. That offers more important insight into future prices than the regular promises from the White House that the Strait will soon open.
Investors often ask me what percentage of my investable assets are in midstream energy. It’s a high percentage, balanced with a healthy dollop of treasury bills. Why not diversify? During the pandemic a concentration in energy wasn’t a pleasant experience, but the sector rebounded strongly and the 14.1% ten year return on the American Energy Infrastructure Index (AEITR) is steadily closing in on the S&P500’s 15.6%.
With current valuations it’s not clear that diversifying towards the S&P500 would be helpful. The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) shows stocks to be at their most expensive in a quarter century. On a relative valuation basis I find the cash flow multiple in midstream more compelling.
The ERP isn’t a great timing tool. It’s been showing stocks as overvalued for at least three years. During this time earnings have grown at double digits, justifying historic purchases. Factset shows 2026 earnings growth of 23% and 15% next year, which supports today’s apparently lofty valuations. The AEITR’s cash flow yield is over 2X the S&P500, reflecting the latter’s growth orientation but also the bullish outlook of so many investors.
The big four hyperscalers (Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft) are projected to have depreciation expense of $200BN next year. All the numbers related to AI are superlative, and there’s a case the revenues will easily justify valuations. But if things don’t work out as currently priced, to quote a long-time friend who used to run government bond trading, “Down’s a long way.”
We prefer the predictable cashflows of midstream energy stocks.
We have two have funds that seek to profit from this environment: