Energy By The Numbers
The 75th edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy contains all the data a student of global energy could need. If you need to know Latvia’s solar power generation over the past couple of years (1.4 Terrawatt Hours and 2.0 respectively), this is the place to look. Last year the world produced 600 Exajoules of energy, +1.7% year-on-year with a 1.4% ten year CAGR.
Energy production (and consumption, since we overwhelmingly consume what we produce) has been rising as far back as reliable data exists. This has been punctuated only by brief pauses for recessions, such as the 2008-09 Great Financial Crisis or the 2020 Pandemic.
One of the big failings of the International Energy Agency (IEA) was to publish forecasts showing declining global energy consumption. This was to support their agenda to help the world eliminate Greenhouse Gas (GHGs) emissions by 2050. Global energy consumption is only going to fall once the population does – an increasingly likely scenario later this century given declining birthrates.
But the IEA’s wishful thinking was another loss of credibility for environmental extremists. Developing countries want OECD-like living standards, and their quest for increased energy consumption is the defining feature of the world’s energy needs.
GHGs reached 41 Gigatonnes (GTs), a new record. Since 1990 all of the 17GTs increase has been from developing (non-OECD) countries, with China 58% of that. However, last year the US increase in GHGs was almost half the world’s total. China was roughly flat.
US GDP growth of 2.9% was double the EU’s 1.4% — Europe is not an example that we want to emulate here. So higher emissions reflect economic strength. But US coal consumption also jumped by 10%, reflecting White House policy choices. China’s coal consumption was flat but is still 9X the US. The unavoidable math is that China and other big developing countries are the source of increased emissions.
US renewables output grew strongly last year, led by solar which jumped 28%. Even wind output grew 3%, in spite of the President’s antipathy. If Trump was so moved, he could claim to be a global leader on renewables too.
Europe, the global leader on growth-stifling energy policies and high prices, saw a modest decline in windpower and overall almost no growth in renewables output. Apologists blamed the weather. Wind was unreliable and showed up in the wrong places. They blame climate change.
China saw growth across wind, solar and hydro.
Different policies are driving these outcomes. China is motivated by energy security – their EV fleet runs largely on coal. They favor domestic energy above all else. The growth in crude imports was all driven by non-transportation demand.
Europe wants lower emissions more than it wants GDP growth. US policy has flipped somewhat, but the net result is the most market driven of the three.
Interestingly, the growth in global renewables output of 861 Terrawatt hours (Twhs) exceeded the growth in total electricity demand of 855 Twhs, the first time it’s ever happened. Pakistan got 22% of its power from solar last year.
Nonetheless, the world runs on hydrocarbons, with 86.2% of the world’s total energy supply coming from coal, oil and gas. In 2024 it was 86.6%.
Refinery throughput was down last year in the former Soviet Union and the Middle East. This was before Ukrainian drones started attacking Russian energy infrastructure and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz impeded Middle East exports. The throughput figures for this year will show further losses, which is keeping refining margins high.
Natural gas remains a big US success story. It provides 22% of the world’s electricity but 41% of ours, versus 5% and 3% in Europe and China respectively. It’s cheap, and we’re the world’s #1 LNG exporter. The US is Europe’s biggest LNG supplier, and Qatar’s continued inability to honor its contracts enhances our competitive position every day.
The AI Revolution is visible in data center power demand, growing at a 14% CAGR over the past five years, during which it’s gone from 1.5% of total power consumption to 2.4%. As with many metrics in energy, the US is biggest while China’s growing faster. Cheap natural gas provides a critical advantage for America in this arena. Data centers consumed 6.5% of our power generation last year. The Department of Energy expects the share to reach 9-12% by 2030.
One of my favorite charts is the last one, showing that the US energy transition from coal to gas is the only one worth talking about. Gas consumption has increased on an energy equivalent basis more than three times as much as renewables. That doesn’t include gas exports, which are helping to displace coal in other countries too. Solar and wind have received disproportionate attention. America’s economic success is built on natural gas, and that’s not going to change anytime soon.
We have two have funds that seek to profit from this environment: